NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline's Q4 2021 earnings reflected strong performance with sales growth across both Retail Services and Global Products segments.

Valvoline reported a strong fourth quarter with a 28% increase in sales to $835 million. Net income grew by 38% and EPS increased by 39%. The company's Retail Services and Global Products segments both contributed to the robust performance.

  • Reported net income of $168 million grew 38% and EPS of $0.92 increased 39%.
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.50 improved 11% and adjusted EBITDA of $155 million increased 5%.
  • Sales grew 28% to $835 million; Retail Services sales increased 39% and Global Products sales increased 21%.
  • Retail Services system-wide SSS increased 20.1%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$835M

Previous: $652M+28.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.50

Previous: $0.46+8.7%
Company-operated stores

719

Previous: 584+23.1%
Franchised stores

875

Previous: 878-0.3%
Capital Expenditures

$38M

Previous: $57M-33.3%
Free Cash Flow

$260M

Previous: $221M+17.6%
Net Income

$168M

Previous: $122M+37.7%
Operating Income

$142M

Previous: $176M-19.3%
Gross Profit

$246M

Previous: $258M-4.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$230M

Previous: $760M-69.7%
Total Assets

$3.19B

Previous: $3.05B+4.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$835M

Q4 2021+28.1%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline provided its outlook for fiscal year 2022, anticipating sales growth of 19-21%, Retail Services system-wide store additions of 110-130, Retail Services system-wide SSS growth of 9-12%, and adjusted EBITDA of $675-$700 million.

Tailwinds

  • Sales growth of 19-21%
  • Retail Services system-wide store additions of 110-130
  • Retail Services system-wide SSS growth of 9-12%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $675-$700 million
  • Free cash flow $260 —$300 million

Headwinds

  • Supply chain impacts will pressure margins in the first half of the year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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