NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong growth driven by demand and pricing actions, with increased sales and adjusted EBITDA.

Valvoline reported a 21% increase in sales, reaching $957 million, driven by strong demand and pricing actions. Net income grew 2% to $99 million, and adjusted EPS improved 5% to $0.58. The company updated its full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $670 to $680 million and adjusted EPS to $2.07 to $2.15.

  • Net income increased by 2% and EPS increased by 4%.
  • Adjusted EPS improved by 5% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 4%.
  • Sales grew by 21% due to strong demand and pricing actions.
  • Global Products sales are to be sold to Aramco for $2.65 billion in cash.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$957M

Previous: $792M+20.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.58

Previous: $0.55+5.5%
Company-operated stores

772

No prior period
Franchised stores

918

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$102M

Previous: -$106M+3.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$3M

Previous: -$9M+66.7%
Net Income

$99M

Previous: $97M+2.1%
Operating Income

$138M

Previous: $131M+5.3%
Gross Profit

$276M

Previous: $259M+6.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$98M

Previous: $226M-56.6%
Total Assets

$3.35B

Previous: $3.05B+9.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$957M

Q3 2022+20.8%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company expects inflationary pressure to impact profitability in Q4 but maintains a strong outlook for fiscal 2022. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $670 million to $680 million, representing 7% growth on a consolidated basis.

Tailwinds

  • Share gains
  • Pricing actions
  • Strong execution
  • Compelling opportunities to drive shareholder value
  • Evolution to a powertrain agnostic service provider

Headwinds

  • Inflationary pressure continuing
  • Impacts to profitability in Q4
  • Raw material inflation
  • COVID-19 challenges, particularly in China
  • Geopolitical disruption

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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