NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline reported strong Q4 2023 results, marking its first year as a pure-play retail business, with significant growth in sales, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA.

Valvoline Inc. reported a 16% increase in sales from continuing operations, reaching $390 million, and a 10.0% increase in system-wide same-store sales (SSS) for the fourth quarter. EPS increased by 657% to $0.53, and adjusted EPS increased by 86% to $0.39. The company added 48 net stores, bringing the total store count to 1,852.

  • Sales from continuing operations grew by 16% to $390 million, and system-wide SSS increased by 10.0%.
  • Reported EPS increased by 657% to $0.53, and adjusted EPS increased by 86% to $0.39.
  • Net store additions totaled 48, with 26 franchised and 22 company-operated stores.
  • System-wide store sales grew by 15% to $738.3 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$390M

Previous: $335M+16.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.39

Previous: $0.59-33.9%
Company-operated stores

876

No prior period
Franchised stores

976

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$54.6M

Previous: $30M+82.0%
Free Cash Flow

$173M

Previous: $125M+37.7%
Net Income

$45.2M

Previous: $158M-71.3%
Operating Income

$70.2M

Previous: $67.2M+4.5%
Gross Profit

$148M

Previous: $129M+14.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$409M

Previous: $23.4M+1648.3%
Total Assets

$2.89B

Previous: $3.42B-15.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.4M

Previous: $3.4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$390M

Q4 2023+16.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline anticipates delivering results aligned with its long-term growth algorithm in fiscal year 2024, projecting top-line sales between $1.6 and $1.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $420 and $460 million. The company expects system-wide same-store sales growth of 6-9% and plans to add 140-170 stores to the network, with 55-70 coming from franchisees.

Tailwinds

  • Expected top-line sales of $1.6 - $1.7 billion.
  • Anticipated adjusted EBITDA of $420 - $460 million.
  • Projected system-wide same store sales growth of 6-9%.
  • Plan to add 140-170 stores to the network.
  • 55-70 new stores are expected to come from franchisees.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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