NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline reported strong Q4 and Fiscal Year 2020 results.

Valvoline's Q4 2020 results exceeded expectations, demonstrating the resilience of its business model. The company reported a net income of $122 million, a 4% increase in sales to $652 million, and an adjusted EPS growth of 15% to $0.46. Strong performance in Quick Lubes and Core North America, along with improved profitability in International, drove the positive results.

  • Net income increased to $122 million, a $95 million increase year-over-year.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 15% to $0.46.
  • Sales grew by 4% to $652 million.
  • VIOC system-wide same-store sales grew by 8.3%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$652M

Previous: $629M+3.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.46

Previous: $0.40+15.0%
Company-operated stores

584

No prior period
Franchised stores

878

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$57M

Previous: $35M+62.9%
Free Cash Flow

$221M

Previous: $76M+190.8%
Net Income

$122M

Previous: $27M+351.9%
Operating Income

$176M

Previous: $113M+55.8%
Gross Profit

$258M

Previous: $217M+18.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$760M

Previous: $159M+378.0%
Total Assets

$3.05B

Previous: $2.06B+47.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $1M+300.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$652M

Q4 2020+3.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline expects to generate low double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2021, driven by its diversified business model and the strength of its quick lubes segment.

Tailwinds

  • Substantial top- and bottom-line growth in Quick Lubes.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 impacts and strong operational performance.
  • Modest top-line growth in Core North America with stable retail channel performance.
  • Significant top-line growth in International with continued recovery from COVID-19 impacts.
  • New company store growth and acquisitions drive modestly higher capital expenditures.

Headwinds

  • Potential impact from future external events related to COVID-19.
  • Possible additional state, regional, or country lockdown measures.
  • Significant changes in driving trends.
  • High-single digit profitability decline in Core North America driven by year-over-year price-cost lag impacts.
  • EBITDA growth moderated by channel development and brand building initiatives in International.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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