NYSE$VVV
Valvoline Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings
Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Valvoline's Q4 2022 financial results were released, revealing a mix of positive and negative performance indicators.
Valvoline's Q4 2022 results showed a decrease in reported net income and EPS, but an increase in adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA. Continuing operations sales increased, but reported net income decreased significantly. System-wide same-store sales increased, and cash was returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company also announced a $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization.
- Reported net income decreased by 7% and EPS decreased by 4%.
- Adjusted EPS increased by 20% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 18%.
- Continuing operations sales increased by 14%, but reported net income decreased by 90%.
- System-wide same-store sales increased by 9.2%.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly
$335M
Forward guidance
Valvoline expects to continue driving same-store sales growth and expanding its network of stores. They anticipate 14% to 18% top line growth and adjusted EBITDA to grow 17% to 24% to $370 million to $390 million as margin leverage improves in fiscal year 2023.
Tailwinds
- Continue driving same-store sales growth by winning new customers
- Continue driving same-store sales growth by expanding average ticket
- Continue expanding our network of conveniently located stores
- Renewed focus on franchise development over time
- Business is resilient, highlighting the non-discretionary nature of preventive maintenance and positioning us well for future growth
Headwinds
- Valvoline is unable to reconcile these forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures estimated for fiscal 2023 without unreasonable efforts
- Currently unable to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the type and extent of certain items that would be expected to impact these GAAP measures in fiscal 2023 but would not impact non-GAAP adjusted results.
- Capital expenditures $170 —$200 million
- Adjusted effective tax rate 25.5—26.5%
- Adjusted net income$160—$180 million
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022
-0.3%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.4%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.6%
Avg return
30 days after
48%
20 / 42 earnings
Positive
+12.3%
Q2 2023
Best reaction
-21.2%
Q1 2019
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +4.8% | -4.1% | +4.6% | |
| Q1 2026 | +8.1% | +11.1% | +5.9% | |
| Q4 2025 | -2.6% | -3.3% | -6.0% | |
| Q2 2025 | -1.8% | +0.9% | +6.0% | |
| Q1 2025 | +7.4% | +8.8% | -4.6% | |
| Q4 2024 | -9.1% | -8.9% | -14.3% | |
| Q3 2024 | -7.5% | -9.3% | -8.4% | |
| Q2 2024 | -5.1% | -5.4% | -7.4% | |
| Q1 2024 | +7.0% | +10.4% | +21.1% | |
| Q4 2023 | +8.3% | +14.6% | +16.8% | |
| Q3 2023 | -4.8% | -5.4% | -6.4% | |
| Q2 2023 | +12.3% | +12.0% | +8.3% | |
| Q1 2023 | -4.4% | -3.1% | -4.1% | |
| Q4 2022 | -0.1% | +1.2% | -3.6% | |
| Q3 2022 | -7.5% | -5.9% | -6.6% | |
| Q2 2022 | -8.4% | -1.2% | +14.1% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.1% | -1.4% | -9.3% | |
| Q4 2021 | -1.5% | -2.0% | -1.9% | |
| Q3 2021 | -0.7% | -2.9% | -2.2% | |
| Q2 2021 | +7.9% | +9.1% | +14.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | -2.0% | -0.2% | +4.1% | |
| Q4 2020 | +5.6% | +8.8% | +21.2% | |
| Q3 2020 | +1.9% | +5.9% | +0.6% | |
| Q2 2020 | +0.5% | -0.3% | +17.8% | |
| Q1 2020 | +3.9% | +8.0% | -7.3% | |
| Q4 2019 | +4.4% | +7.2% | +1.8% | |
| Q3 2019 | +6.7% | +7.1% | +11.4% | |
| Q2 2019 | -6.9% | -2.7% | -5.7% | |
| Q1 2019 | -21.2% | -18.0% | -18.6% | |
| Q4 2018 | -6.6% | -1.4% | +1.1% | |
| Q3 2018 | -7.0% | -4.6% | -4.7% | |
| Q2 2018 | +3.4% | +6.4% | +2.0% | |
| Q1 2018 | -2.8% | -0.8% | +0.5% | |
| Q4 2015 | -2.0% | -1.4% | -1.6% | |
| Q4 2017 | -0.4% | -3.0% | +3.3% | |
| Q3 2016 | +0.0% | -0.8% | -2.0% | |
| Q3 2017 | +0.6% | -1.5% | -6.1% | |
| Q2 2016 | +0.1% | +0.7% | -0.2% | |
| Q2 2017 | -0.3% | -2.5% | -3.0% | |
| Q1 2016 | +2.0% | -0.2% | -2.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | +5.6% | +3.3% | +1.3% | |
| Q4 2016 | -4.8% | -9.1% | -4.0% | |
| Q3 2015 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | — | — | — |
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