NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline's third quarter results were marked by substantial growth in net income, EPS, adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, and sales, driven by the Retail Services segment and overall strategic transformation.

Valvoline reported a strong third quarter with significant growth across key financial metrics. Net income increased by 64%, EPS by 66%, adjusted EPS by 112%, and adjusted EBITDA by 75%. Sales also saw a substantial rise of 53%, primarily fueled by the Retail Services segment's impressive same-store sales growth of 40.5%.

  • Net income grew 64% to $97 million, and EPS increased 66% to $0.53.
  • Adjusted EPS rose 112% to $0.55, and adjusted EBITDA increased 75% to $173 million.
  • Sales increased 53% to $792 million, driven by strong performance in the Retail Services segment.
  • Retail Services system-wide same-store sales grew 40.5%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$792M

Previous: $516M+53.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.55

Previous: $0.28+96.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$106M

Previous: -$94M-12.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$9M

Previous: -$35M+74.3%
Net Income

$97M

Previous: $59M+64.4%
Operating Income

$131M

Previous: $88M+48.9%
Gross Profit

$259M

Previous: $187M+38.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$226M

Previous: $751M-69.9%
Total Assets

$3.05B

Previous: $2.96B+2.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $5M-20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$792M

Q3 2021+53.5%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline is tightening its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $620 million to $640 million and expects to continue returning excess cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases using its recently announced $300 million share repurchase authorization.

Tailwinds

  • Sales growth of 25 - 26%
  • Retail Services system-wide store additions of 140 - 160
  • Retail Services system-wide SSS growth of 19 - 21%
  • Normalized system-wide SSS growth of 10 - 12%
  • Free cash flow of $250 - $270 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted effective tax rate of 25 - 26%
  • Adjusted EPS of $1.86 - $1.96
  • Capital expenditures of $160 - $170 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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