NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline's Q2 2020 financial results reflected a strong start to the quarter offset by significant impacts in March due to COVID-19, with net income flat and adjusted EPS increasing.

Valvoline's second-quarter results showed resilience despite the impact of COVID-19, with a net income of $63 million and adjusted EPS increasing by 11% to $0.39. Sales declined by 2% to $578 million, but the company maintained a strong cash position and is focused on managing operations and maintaining financial flexibility.

  • Net income was $63 million, with EPS at $0.33, remaining flat compared to the previous year.
  • Adjusted EPS increased by 11% to $0.39, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 10% to $134 million, factoring in COVID-19 impacts.
  • Sales decreased by 2% to $578 million, while lubricant volume dropped by 6% to 41.7 million gallons.
  • Quick Lubes system-wide same-store sales grew by 0.7%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$578M

Previous: $591M-2.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.39

Previous: $0.35+11.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$57M

Previous: -$48M-18.8%
Free Cash Flow

$6M

Previous: $15M-60.0%
Net Income

$63M

Previous: $63M+0.0%
Operating Income

$117M

Previous: $96M+21.9%
Gross Profit

$207M

Previous: $203M+2.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$774M

Previous: $114M+578.9%
Total Assets

$2.92B

Previous: $1.91B+52.4%
Stock-Based Comp

-$1M

Previous: $2M-150.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$578M

Q2 2020-2.2%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline withdrew its previous guidance for the current fiscal year due to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing COVID-19 impacts on the business. The duration and severity of these impacts remains unclear, and as such the Company is not providing guidance for fiscal 2020 at this time.

Tailwinds

  • Improving recent trends across segments as miles driven begins to improve with regions starting to reopen.
  • Healthy cash position driven by actions to reduce operating costs and increase financial flexibility.
  • Preventative-maintenance business model has performed well across previous economic cycles.
  • Strength of balance sheet and competitive advantages of operations coming into the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Talent and endurance of people are providing a solid foundation for business today and position the company for the expected recovery to come.

Headwinds

  • More significant impacts expected in the current quarter due to COVID-19.
  • Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing COVID-19 impacts on the business.
  • The duration and severity of these impacts remains unclear.
  • Withdrawal of the previous guidance for the current fiscal year.
  • Not providing guidance for fiscal 2020 at this time.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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