NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa's Q4 2024 financial performance demonstrated significant improvements due to continued strength in alumina and aluminum pricing and considerable advances in operational stability.

Alcoa reported a strong fourth quarter in 2024, with revenue increasing by 20% sequentially to $3.5 billion and net income increasing by 124% sequentially to $202 million, or $0.76 per common share. Adjusted net income increased 104% sequentially to $276 million, or $1.04 per common share. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items increased 49% sequentially to $677 million.

  • Revenue increased to $3.5 billion, a 20 percent increase sequentially.
  • Net income increased 124 percent sequentially to $202 million, or $0.76 per common share.
  • Adjusted net income increased 104 percent sequentially to $276 million, or $1.04 per common share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items increased 49 percent sequentially to $677 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.49B

Previous: $2.6B+34.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.04

Previous: -$0.56+285.7%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

9.3

Previous: 10.4M-100.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

2.4M

Previous: 2.8M-14.3%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

571.0K

Previous: 541.0K+5.5%
Third-Party Bauxite Shipments (mdmt)

2.4

No prior period
Third-Party Alumina Shipments (kmt)

2.3M

No prior period
Avg Realized 3rd-Party Alumina Price

$636.00

No prior period
Avg Realized 3rd-Party Aluminum Price

$3.01K

No prior period
Intersegment Alumina Shipments (kmt)

1.2M

No prior period
Produced Alumina Shipments (kmt)

2.5M

No prior period
Adj. Operating Cost per Ton Alumina

$310.00

No prior period
Total Aluminum Shipments (kmt)

641.0K

No prior period
Produced Aluminum Shipments (kmt)

566.0K

No prior period
Adj. Operating Cost per Ton Aluminum

$2.68K

No prior period
Days Working Capital

34

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$169M

Previous: -$188M+10.1%
Net Income

$202M

Previous: -$150M+234.7%
Operating Income

$338M

Previous: -$77M+539.0%
Gross Profit

$772M

Previous: $170M+354.1%
R&D Expense

$17M

Previous: $14M+21.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.49B

Q4 2024+34.3%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.77B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.65B-16.6%
  • Alumina Sales
    $1.12B+34.4%

Forward guidance

Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production to range between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons. Alcoa expects 2025 total Aluminum segment production to range between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons.

Tailwinds

  • Absence of a charge to write down certain inventories to their net realizable value will have a sequential favorable impact of $30 million on Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA within the first quarter 2025.
  • Aluminum segment production is expected to increase from 2024 due to smelter restarts.
  • Alumina shipments are expected to be consistent with 2024, between 13.1 and 13.3 million metric tons.
  • In 2025, aluminum shipments are expected to range between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons.
  • 2025 total Aluminum segment production to range between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons.

Headwinds

  • Alumina segment production is expected to decrease from 2024 due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, with 2025 production ranging between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons.
  • Lower seasonal pricing at Brazil hydro-electric facilities will have a sequential unfavorable impact of $60 million on Aluminum Segment in Q1 2025.
  • Non-recurrence of the fourth quarter 2024 benefit from the IRA 45X credit will have a sequential unfavorable impact of $60 million on Aluminum Segment in Q1 2025.
  • Absence of Ma’aden offtake volumes due to the announced transaction will have a sequential unfavorable impact of $60 million on Aluminum Segment in Q1 2025.
  • Contributions to ELYSISTM in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to increase by $25 million which triggers loss recognition.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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