NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa reported sequential improvements in key earnings metrics and maintained a strong cash balance.

Alcoa Corporation reported first quarter 2023 results with a revenue of $2.7 billion. The company saw sequential improvements in net loss and adjusted EBITDA. They finished the quarter with a cash balance of $1.1 billion.

  • Generated revenue of $2.7 billion
  • Posted sequential improvements in Net loss attributable to Alcoa of $164 million and Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $211 million
  • Finished the first quarter with a cash balance of $1.1 billion
  • Paid a cash dividend of $0.10 per share of common stock, totaling $18 million

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.67B

Previous: $3.29B-18.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.23

Previous: $3.06-107.5%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

9.9M

Previous: 11.0M-10.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

2.8M

Previous: 3.2M-14.1%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

518.0K

Previous: 498.0K+4.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$83M

Previous: -$74M-12.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$314M

Previous: $395M-179.5%
Net Income

-$231M

Previous: $469M-149.3%
Operating Income

-$2.45B

Previous: -$2.23B-9.7%
Gross Profit

-$2.4B

Previous: -$2.18B-10.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.14B

Previous: $1.55B-26.8%
Total Assets

$14.4B

Previous: $16B-10.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $9M+11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.67B

Q1 2023-18.9%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $3.09B total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.81B-24.1%
  • Alumina Sales
    $1.28B+49.5%

Forward guidance

The Company expects lower sequential Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $55 million in the second quarter related to operating the Kwinana and Pinjarra refineries at the lower bauxite grade, which impacts the refineries with higher usages of caustic, energy, and bauxite and results in lower alumina output.

Tailwinds

  • Other expense is expected to be favorable by approximately $30 million sequentially primarily due to the absence of a one-time charge recorded in the first quarter.
  • For the second quarter 2023, the Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve by $30 million on favorable raw materials, volume and lower production costs
  • Expected improvements in raw materials and energy prices

Headwinds

  • The Company expects lower sequential Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $55 million in the second quarter related to operating the Kwinana and Pinjarra refineries at the lower bauxite grade
  • The reduction in grade will extend the ore supply and provide more time to work through the approvals process.
  • The Company expects net unfavorable $10 million impacts as seasonal maintenance and costs associated with the Alumar refinery conveyance system recovery are partially offset by improvements in raw materials and energy prices.
  • The Company expects 2023 total alumina and aluminum shipments to remain unchanged between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively.
  • In addition, the Company expects $5 million to $10 million in unfavorable impacts associated with the Portland smelter partial curtailment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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