NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa reported its highest quarterly results since 2018, driven by improved pricing and strong shipments.

Alcoa Corporation reported strong first quarter 2021 results with revenue and income reaching their highest levels since 2018. The company benefited from improvements in alumina and aluminum pricing, strong operational performance, and strategic execution. Alcoa also completed the sale of the Warrick rolling mill and strengthened its balance sheet.

  • Maintained reliable production and shipments while prioritizing safety, including COVID-19 protocols
  • Revenue and income highest since 2018, which was a record-setting year
  • Realized 20 percent sequential increase in revenue on higher prices and strong shipments
  • Generated net income of $175 million; sequentially, adjusted net income increased 206 percent to $150 million

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.87B

Previous: $2.38B+20.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.79

Previous: -$0.23+443.5%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

11.9M

Previous: 11.6M+2.6%
Alumina Production (kmt)

3.3M

Previous: 3.3M+0.9%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

548.0K

Previous: 564.0K-2.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$75M

Previous: -$91M+17.6%
Free Cash Flow

$100M

Previous: -$11M+1009.1%
Net Income

$175M

Previous: $80M+118.8%
Operating Income

-$2.33B

Previous: -$2.09B-11.5%
Gross Profit

-$2.29B

Previous: -$2.03B-13.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.54B

Previous: $829M+206.9%
Total Assets

$14.9B

Previous: $13.7B+9.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $8M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.87B

Q1 2021+20.5%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $760M total across 1 segment · Q1 2021

  • Alumina Sales
    $760M-27.1%

Forward guidance

Alcoa is expecting a strong 2021 based on continued economic recovery and increased demand for aluminum in all end markets.

Tailwinds

  • The Company’s Aluminum segment is forecasting double digit growth on year-over-year sales of value-add products.
  • In the first quarter of 2021, shipments for value-add products, which includes specific shapes and alloys such as billet, slab, foundry and rod, increased 10 percent sequentially, posting three consecutive quarters of improvement.
  • Total alumina shipments are expected to increase 100 thousand metric tons to between 14.0 and 14.1 million metric tons.
  • Total annual bauxite shipments are expected to range between 49.0 and 50.0 million dry metric tons.
  • The Aluminum segment is expected to ship between 2.7 and 2.8 million metric tons.

Headwinds

  • absence of the Warrick rolling mill results
  • current energy market conditions
  • seasonal maintenance typically higher in the second quarter than other quarters.
  • Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, the Company expects second quarter tax expense to approximate $90 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, and its magnitude and duration continue to be unknown.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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