NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa's Q2 2024 results reflected sequential increases in revenue, net income, adjusted net income and Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items on higher alumina and aluminum prices, along with continued progress on profitability improvement programs.

Alcoa reported a revenue of $2.9 billion and a net income of $20 million for Q2 2024. The company saw sequential increases in revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices and progress on profitability improvement programs. The acquisition of Alumina Limited is expected to close on or about August 1, 2024.

  • Revenue increased 12 percent sequentially to $2.9 billion, on higher alumina and aluminum prices
  • Net income increased sequentially to $20 million, or $0.11 per share
  • Adjusted net income increased to $30 million, or $0.16 per share
  • Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items increased sequentially to $325 million

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.91B

Previous: $2.68B+8.3%
EPS

$0.11

Previous: -$0.35+131.4%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

9.5

Previous: 10.0M-100.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

2.5M

Previous: 2.6M-0.8%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

543.0K

Previous: 523.0K+3.8%
Third-Party Bauxite Shipments (mdmt)

1.5

No prior period
Third-Party Alumina Shipments (kmt)

2.3M

No prior period
Avg Realized 3rd-Party Alumina Price

$399.00

No prior period
Avg Realized 3rd-Party Aluminum Price

$2.86K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$265M

Previous: -$198M-33.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$245M

Previous: -$300M+18.3%
Net Income

$20M

Previous: -$102M+119.6%
Operating Income

-$2.6B

Previous: -$2.55B-1.7%
Gross Profit

-$2.53B

Previous: -$2.52B-0.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.4B

Previous: $990M+41.0%
Total Assets

$14.3B

Previous: $14.1B+1.3%
R&D Expense

$13M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $11M+9.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.91B

Q2 2024+8.3%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.77B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.65B-16.6%
  • Alumina Sales
    $1.12B+34.4%

Forward guidance

Alcoa expects 2024 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection. Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection. Within third quarter 2024 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $10 million related to bauxite grade in Australia. Within third quarter 2024 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects favorable raw material prices of $10 million. Interest expense in the third quarter 2024 is expected to increase by approximately $5 million due to the assumption of Alumina Limited debt at acquisition closing. Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects third quarter operational tax expense to approximate $60 million to $70 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability. Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest will be reported through the closing of the Alumina Limited acquisition in the third quarter and is expected to approximate $20 million.

Tailwinds

  • Alcoa expects 2024 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 9.8 and 10.0 million metric tons, and between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons, respectively.
  • Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively.
  • Within third quarter 2024 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects favorable raw material prices of $10 million.

Headwinds

  • Within third quarter 2024 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $10 million related to bauxite grade in Australia.
  • Interest expense in the third quarter 2024 is expected to increase by approximately $5 million due to the assumption of Alumina Limited debt at acquisition closing.
  • Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects third quarter operational tax expense to approximate $60 million to $70 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.
  • Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest will be reported through the closing of the Alumina Limited acquisition in the third quarter and is expected to approximate $20 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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