NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa's first quarter results for 2024 were reported, which included the announced acquisition of Alumina Limited and continued action on near-term improvements.

Alcoa Corporation reported a net loss attributable to Alcoa Corporation of $252 million, or $1.41 per share, for the first quarter of 2024. The company's revenue remained consistent with the prior quarter at $2,599 million. Alcoa is also progressing with its acquisition of Alumina Limited and implementing productivity and competitiveness programs.

  • Entered into a binding agreement to acquire Alumina Limited in an all-stock transaction.
  • Initiated the process for the potential sale of the San Ciprián complex.
  • Completed the restart of one potline at Warrick Operations.
  • Announced the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.6B

Previous: $2.67B-2.7%
EPS

-$1.41

Previous: -$0.23-513.0%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

10.1M

Previous: 9.9M+2.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

2.7M

Previous: 2.8M-3.1%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

542.0K

Previous: 518.0K+4.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$101M

Previous: -$83M-21.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$353M

Previous: -$314M-12.4%
Net Income

-$252M

Previous: -$231M-9.1%
Operating Income

-$2.46B

Previous: -$2.45B-0.6%
Gross Profit

-$2.4B

Previous: -$2.4B+0.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.36B

Previous: $1.14B+19.3%
Total Assets

$14.3B

Previous: $14.4B-0.3%
R&D Expense

$11M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $10M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.6B

Q1 2024-2.7%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.77B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.65B-16.6%
  • Alumina Sales
    $1.12B+34.4%

Forward guidance

Alcoa expects 2024 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 9.8 and 10.0 million metric tons, and between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons, respectively. Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively.

Tailwinds

  • Alumina segment production and shipments are projected to remain unchanged.
  • Aluminum segment production and shipments are projected to remain unchanged.
  • Favorable raw material prices in Aluminum segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Favorable production costs in Aluminum segment Adjusted EBITDA.

Headwinds

  • Sequential unfavorable impacts of $20 million related to higher seasonal maintenance and other mining costs for the Australia operations in Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Higher energy costs in Aluminum segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be unfavorable by $15 million sequentially.
  • Interest expense to approximate $145 million for the year, an increase from the prior projection as a result of the green bond issuance.
  • Second quarter operational tax expense to approximate $40 million to $50 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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