NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa Corporation reported its highest ever quarterly net income and earnings per share, driven by strong aluminum pricing and improved customer demand.

Alcoa Corporation reported record quarterly net income of $309 million and earnings per share of $1.63, marking the highest profitability since the company's inception in 2016. The results were driven by strong aluminum pricing, improved customer demand, and strategic actions to strengthen the balance sheet.

  • Achieved record quarterly net income of $309 million and earnings per share of $1.63, the highest since Alcoa Corporation’s 2016 inception.
  • Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items increased 19 percent sequentially to $618 million.
  • Benefited from strong aluminum pricing with more than a 60 percent year-over-year increase in realized pricing.
  • Strengthened the balance sheet through debt reduction and improved global pension plan funding status.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.83B

Previous: $2.15B+31.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.49

Previous: -$0.02+7550.0%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

12.2M

Previous: 12.2M+0.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

3.4M

Previous: 3.4M+0.5%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

546.0K

Previous: 581.0K-6.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$154M

Previous: -$168M+8.3%
Free Cash Flow

$155M

Previous: -$365M+142.5%
Net Income

$309M

Previous: -$197M+256.9%
Operating Income

-$2.22B

Previous: -$2.3B+3.7%
Gross Profit

-$2.16B

Previous: -$1.93B-11.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.65B

Previous: $965M+71.2%
Total Assets

$14.4B

Previous: $13.3B+8.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $9M+11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.83B

Q2 2021+31.9%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.79B total across 2 segments · Q2 2021

  • Aluminum Sales
    $2.1B
  • Alumina Sales
    $688M+14.1%

Forward guidance

Alcoa anticipates another strong quarter based on continuing forecasts for economic recovery and solid global demand across key end-use sectors. The Company also anticipates continuing inflationary pressure on raw materials and energy.

Tailwinds

  • Strong 2021 based on the continued economic recovery and increased demand for aluminum in all end markets.
  • Aluminum segment is forecasting double digit growth on year-over-year sales of value-add products.
  • Bauxite shipment outlook expected to improve to between 50.0 and 51.0 million dry metric tons.
  • Alumina shipment outlook expected to improve to between 14.1 to 14.2 million metric tons.
  • Aluminum shipment outlook expected to improve to between 2.9 and 3.0 million metric tons.

Headwinds

  • Continuing inflationary pressure on raw materials and energy.
  • Third quarter tax expense to exceed $100 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.
  • COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, and its magnitude and duration continue to be unknown.
  • Uncertainty around the pandemic’s impact on the Company’s business, financial condition, operating results, and cash flows could cause actual results to differ from this outlook.
  • The company continues to take appropriate measures to protect its employees and business from the risks of the pandemic by following all appropriate health-based protocols.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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