NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa's Q3 2024 results reflected the acquisition of Alumina Limited and sequential increases in net income, adjusted net income, and Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items.

Alcoa reported a net income of $90 million, or $0.38 per common share, and an adjusted net income of $135 million, or $0.57 per common share. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items increased sequentially to $455 million. The company completed the acquisition of Alumina Limited and announced the sale of its interest in the Ma’aden joint ventures.

  • Net income increased sequentially to $90 million, or $0.38 per common share
  • Adjusted net income increased sequentially to $135 million, or $0.57 per common share
  • Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items increased sequentially to $455 million
  • Completed the acquisition of Alumina Limited on August 1, 2024

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.9B

Previous: $2.6B+11.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.57

Previous: -$1.14+150.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$411M

Previous: -$343M-19.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$321M

Previous: -$511M+37.2%
Net Income

$90M

Previous: -$168M+153.6%
Operating Income

-$2.46B

Previous: -$2.52B+2.3%
Gross Profit

-$2.39B

Previous: -$2.47B+3.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.31B

Previous: $926M+41.8%
Total Assets

$14.5B

Previous: $13.9B+4.5%
R&D Expense

$16M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$9M

Previous: $6M+50.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.9B

Q3 2024+11.6%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.77B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.65B-16.6%
  • Alumina Sales
    $1.12B+34.4%

Forward guidance

Alcoa expects total 2024 Alumina segment production to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 9.8 and 10.0 million metric tons. The Company is increasing its projection for shipments to range between 12.9 and 13.1 million metric tons. Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively.

Tailwinds

  • Alcoa expects total 2024 Alumina segment production to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 9.8 and 10.0 million metric tons.
  • The Company is increasing its projection for shipments to range between 12.9 and 13.1 million metric tons.
  • Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3 million metric tons.
  • Alcoa expects 2024 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons.
  • For the fourth quarter 2024, the Company expects Aluminum Segment performance to be flat, maintaining the strong performance from the third quarter 2024.

Headwinds

  • The Company expects Other expenses for the fourth quarter 2024 to increase approximately $20 million sequentially on Ma’aden equity losses and equity contributions to ELYSISTM.
  • Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects fourth quarter operational tax expense to approximate $120 million to $130 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.
  • The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery.
  • Unfavorable impacts of $30 million due to higher shipments and lower production costs.
  • The process began in 2020 and Alcoa is focused on receiving approval by the first quarter of 2026.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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