NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa reported fourth quarter results, which included a net loss and revenue decrease due to lower prices for alumina and aluminum.

Alcoa Corporation reported a net loss of $374 million, or $2.12 per share, on revenue of $2.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022. The results were influenced by lower aluminum and alumina prices and higher costs for raw materials and energy.

  • Generated revenue of $2.7 billion.
  • Recorded net loss of $374 million, or $2.12 per share; adjusted net loss of $123 million, or $0.70 per share.
  • Generated $118 million in cash from operations.
  • Finished the fourth quarter with a cash balance of $1.4 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.66B

Previous: $3.34B-20.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.70

Previous: $2.50-128.0%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

10.6M

Previous: 11.8M-10.2%
Alumina Production (kmt)

3.0M

Previous: 3.3M-8.3%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

516.0K

Previous: 554.0K-6.9%
Capital Expenditures

$171M

Previous: $153M+11.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$53M

Previous: $412M-112.9%
Net Income

-$374M

Previous: -$392M+4.6%
Operating Income

-$219M

Previous: -$71M-208.5%
Gross Profit

$67M

Previous: $957M-93.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.36B

Previous: $1.81B-24.9%
Total Assets

$14.8B

Previous: $15B-1.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $13M-7.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.66B

Q4 2022-20.3%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.59B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.83B-21.1%
  • Alumina Sales
    $756M-19.1%

Forward guidance

In 2023, Alcoa projects lower alumina shipments and expects approximately $25 million higher costs from a Western Australia gas supply disruption to be offset by the non-recurrence of the Alumar refinery ARO adjustment.

Tailwinds

  • Non-recurrence of the Alumar refinery ARO adjustment.
  • Lower energy costs for Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • $15 million lower raw material costs for Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • $15 million lower production costs for Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Improved gas supply in Western Australia.

Headwinds

  • Total alumina shipments are projected to decrease.
  • Western Australia gas supply disruption.
  • Lower bauxite quality at the Australian refineries.
  • Unfavorable other expense by approximately $45 million sequentially on lower equity income results for Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Annual mine plan approvals process in Western Australia is currently taking longer than it has traditionally.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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