NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa reported its highest quarterly net income and earnings per share, eclipsing the prior quarter’s record-setting financial performance and continuing to capture benefits from strong aluminum pricing.

Alcoa's Q3 2021 results showcased record profitability with a net income of $337 million and EPS of $1.76, driven by strong aluminum and alumina prices. The company grew revenue to $3.1 billion, a 10% sequential increase, and generated $435 million in cash from operations.

  • Grew revenue to $3.1 billion, a sequential increase of 10 percent
  • Set a record for quarterly net income of $337 million and earnings per share of $1.76
  • Realized a 39 percent sequential increase in adjusted net income to $391 million
  • Generated $435 million in cash from operations; finished the quarter with a cash balance of $1.45 billion

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.11B

Previous: $2.37B+31.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.05

Previous: -$1.17+275.2%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

11.7

Previous: 12.0M-100.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

3.3K

Previous: 3.4M-99.9%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

545

Previous: 559.0K-99.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$237M

Previous: -$242M+2.1%
Free Cash Flow

$100M

Previous: -$291M+134.4%
Net Income

$337M

Previous: -$49M+787.8%
Operating Income

-$2.39B

Previous: -$2.53B+5.5%
Gross Profit

-$2.32B

Previous: -$2.04B-13.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.45B

Previous: $1.74B-16.4%
Total Assets

$14.2B

Previous: $14.3B-0.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $7M+14.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.11B

Q3 2021+31.5%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $3.05B total across 2 segments · Q3 2021

  • Aluminum Sales
    $2.3B+42.8%
  • Alumina Sales
    $756M+8.5%

Forward guidance

Alcoa anticipates continued positive financial results in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is well positioned to participate in strong market pricing. The resulting fourth quarter impact on net income attributable to Alcoa could approximate $90 million. Additionally, working capital increase in the fourth quarter related to San Ciprián could approximate $120 million.

Tailwinds

  • Alcoa continues to expect a strong 2021 based on the continued economic recovery and increased demand for aluminum in all end markets.
  • The Company’s Aluminum segment is forecasting double digit growth on year-over-year shipment volume of value-add products
  • Company expects annual global demand for primary aluminum to increase approximately 10 percent relative to 2020 and to surpass the pre-pandemic levels in 2019
  • Alcoa anticipates continued positive financial results in the fourth quarter of 2021
  • Alcoa is well positioned to participate in strong market pricing.

Headwinds

  • The San Ciprián refining and smelting operations are expected to face significantly higher energy and raw materials costs, as well as the loss of value-add premiums while strike conditions persist.
  • The resulting fourth quarter impact on net income attributable to Alcoa could approximate $90 million.
  • Included in that impact is the reduction of approximately 52,000 metric tons of aluminum shipments.
  • Additionally, working capital increase in the fourth quarter related to San Ciprián could approximate $120 million.
  • Beyond the San Ciprián impacts, the Company also anticipates continuing inflationary pressure on raw materials and energy.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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