NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa reported increased third-party shipments in both segments and a sequential improvement in cash generated from operations, despite lower average realized prices for alumina and aluminum.

Alcoa Corporation reported a net loss of $168 million for Q3 2023, with revenue of $2.60 billion. The company saw increased third-party shipments of alumina and aluminum. Alumina production increased, and the company achieved multiple production records across the Canadian smelting system.

  • Increased third-party shipments of alumina by 11 percent and aluminum by 1 percent sequentially.
  • Generated $69 million in cash from operations, a sequential improvement of $82 million.
  • Finished the third quarter with a cash balance of $926 million.
  • Initiated cost reduction program at the Kwinana refinery in Australia.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.6B

Previous: $2.85B-8.7%
EPS (adj)

-$1.14

Previous: -$0.33-245.5%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

10.7M

No prior period
Alumina Production (kmt)

2.8M

Previous: 3.1M-9.5%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

532.0K

Previous: 497.0K+7.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$343M

Previous: -$309M-11.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$511M

Previous: -$1.06B+51.6%
Net Income

-$168M

Previous: -$746M+77.5%
Operating Income

-$2.52B

Previous: -$2.71B+7.2%
Gross Profit

-$2.47B

Previous: -$2.67B+7.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$926M

Previous: $1.43B-35.3%
Total Assets

$13.9B

Previous: $14.9B-6.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $8M-25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.6B

Q3 2023-8.7%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.77B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.65B-16.6%
  • Alumina Sales
    $1.12B+34.4%

Forward guidance

Alcoa expects total alumina and aluminum shipments to remain unchanged. Within the Alumina segment, the company expects a $50 million benefit from lower raw material prices, lower production costs, and higher volumes, partially offset by $10 million in higher energy costs. Within the Aluminum segment, Alcoa expects $35 million in lower raw material prices to be fully offset by unfavorable value add aluminum products sales and higher production costs. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by $5 million sequentially. Unfavorable energy impacts of approximately $30 million are expected due to carbon dioxide compensation changes in Norway.

Tailwinds

  • Alumina segment expects a $50 million benefit from lower raw material prices.
  • Alumina segment expects a $50 million benefit from lower production costs.
  • Alumina segment expects a $50 million benefit from higher volumes.
  • Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by $5 million sequentially.
  • Potential $20 million adjustment in Q4 to reverse amounts accrued in cost of goods sold for 2023 credits earned through September 30, 2023, pending approval of the Norwegian government's budget proposal.

Headwinds

  • Alumina segment expects $10 million in higher energy costs.
  • Aluminum segment expects lower raw material prices to be fully offset by unfavorable value add aluminum products sales.
  • Aluminum segment expects lower raw material prices to be fully offset by higher production costs.
  • Aluminum segment expects unfavorable energy impacts of approximately $30 million due to carbon dioxide compensation changes in Norway.
  • Impacts related to lower bauxite grade in Australia are expected to be consistent with the third quarter of 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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