NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported higher sequential revenue due to increased shipments which outweighed lower average realized pricing.

Alcoa Corporation reported second quarter 2023 results, which included higher sequential revenue as increased shipments outweighed lower average realized pricing. The company generated revenue of $2.68 billion and posted a net loss attributable to Alcoa of $102 million, or $0.57 per share. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $137 million, and the company finished the quarter with a cash balance of $1.0 billion.

  • Generated revenue of $2.68 billion.
  • Posted Net loss attributable to Alcoa of $102 million, or $0.57 per share, an improvement of 56 percent sequentially.
  • Recorded Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $137 million.
  • Finished the second quarter with a cash balance of $1.0 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.68B

Previous: $3.64B-26.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.35

Previous: $2.67-113.1%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

10.0M

Previous: 10.2M-2.0%
Alumina Production (kmt)

2.6M

Previous: 3.2M-20.7%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

523.0K

Previous: 499.0K+4.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$198M

Previous: -$181M-9.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$300M

Previous: $368M-181.5%
Net Income

-$102M

Previous: $549M-118.6%
Operating Income

-$2.55B

Previous: -$2.82B+9.5%
Gross Profit

-$2.52B

Previous: -$2.77B+9.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$990M

Previous: $1.64B-39.6%
Total Assets

$14.1B

Previous: $15.7B-10.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$11M

Previous: $11M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.68B

Q2 2023-26.3%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $2.57B total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Aluminum Sales
    $1.79B-29.6%
  • Alumina Sales
    $781M-27.5%

Forward guidance

The Company expects 2023 total alumina and aluminum shipments to remain unchanged between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, respectively.

Tailwinds

  • Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve by $65 million due to lower raw material prices.
  • Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve due to lower production costs and higher volumes as elevated maintenance from the second quarter of 2023 has concluded.
  • Net improvement of $25 million in Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected on favorable raw materials.
  • Net improvement of $25 million in Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected due to lower production costs.
  • Alumina costs are expected to be favorable by $5 million.

Headwinds

  • Unfavorable impacts of $10 million related to operating the Kwinana and Pinjarra refineries with the lower bauxite grade.
  • Unfavorable value add aluminum products sales, primarily due to softer billet demand.
  • The second quarter 2023 included favorable foreign currency gains of $40 million that may not recur.
  • Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects third quarter operational tax expense to approximate $10 million to $20 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.
  • No other negatives were provided.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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