NYSE$AA

Alcoa · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alcoa Corporation reported fourth quarter and full year 2021 results, including the Company’s highest annual net income and earnings per share.

Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter results were driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices, leading to a 7% sequential increase in revenue to $3.3 billion. The company faced a net loss of $392 million, or $(2.11) per share, due to restructuring charges, but adjusted net income increased to $475 million, or $2.50 per share.

  • Increased revenue to $3.3 billion, a 7 percent sequential increase and highest quarterly result since 4Q18
  • Generated $565 million in cash from operations; finished the quarter with a cash balance of $1.9 billion, including restricted cash of $110 million
  • Recorded quarterly net loss of $392 million and loss per share of $2.11, which includes $1.1 billion of restructuring charges, primarily related to pension actions
  • Realized quarterly records for adjusted net income and Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $475 million and $896 million, respectively

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.34B

Previous: $2.39B+39.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.50

Previous: $0.26+861.5%
Bauxite Production (mdmt)

11.8M

Previous: 12.2M-3.3%
Alumina Production (kmt)

3.3M

Previous: 3.4M-2.4%
Aluminum Production (kmt)

554.0K

Previous: 559.0K-0.9%
Capital Expenditures

$153M

Previous: $111M+37.8%
Free Cash Flow

$412M

Previous: -$73M+664.4%
Net Income

-$392M

Previous: -$4M-9700.0%
Operating Income

-$71M

Previous: $37M-291.9%
Gross Profit

$957M

Previous: $418M+128.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.81B

Previous: $1.61B+12.9%
Total Assets

$15B

Previous: $14.9B+0.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$13M

Previous: $1M+1200.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Alcoa · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.34B

Q4 2021+39.6%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alcoa · $3.26B total across 2 segments · Q4 2021

  • Aluminum Sales
    $2.32B+37.8%
  • Alumina Sales
    $935M+50.8%

Forward guidance

Alcoa anticipates Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted net income levels for the first quarter of 2022 to be similar to the fourth quarter of 2021 based on current pricing.

Tailwinds

  • Current metal index price benefits will roughly offset the raw materials and energy challenges.
  • Improvements from portfolio actions and sales contract pricing will mitigate other seasonal changes and headwinds.
  • Improvements related to the San Ciprián strike resolution and smelter curtailment are expected in the Alumina and Aluminum segments.
  • Company expects improvements related to the San Ciprián strike resolution
  • Company expects improvements related to smelter curtailment

Headwinds

  • Lower quarterly performance results in the Bauxite segment due primarily to seasonally lower volumes and higher maintenance.
  • Favorable annual true ups that do not recur in the first quarter.
  • Higher raw materials and energy costs are expected in the Alumina and Aluminum segments.
  • The non-recurrence of value added tax credits (Brazil) is expected in the Alumina and Aluminum segments.
  • First quarter tax expense to approximate $165 million to $170 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 53 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.1%-2.7%-11.2%
Q4 2025-3.1%-5.0%-4.2%
Q3 2025+13.9%+10.3%+1.9%
Q2 2025-0.2%-6.4%+6.1%
Q1 2025-7.0%-3.0%+17.3%
Q4 2024-3.7%-11.9%-11.3%
Q3 2024-2.3%+0.5%+6.6%
Q2 2024-7.8%-10.7%-16.9%
Q1 2024-1.7%+0.7%+14.2%
Q4 2023-4.0%-0.9%-1.7%
Q3 2023-12.7%-15.7%-5.6%
Q2 2023-6.7%-3.7%-17.3%
Q1 2023-4.6%-9.8%-14.4%
Q4 2022-9.7%-5.7%-14.5%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.4%+19.1%
Q2 2022+0.6%+4.2%+13.6%
Q1 2022-16.6%-22.2%-30.0%
Q4 2021+2.0%-3.4%+30.2%
Q3 2021+15.7%+10.9%+7.3%
Q2 2021-6.2%-0.5%+28.8%
Q1 2021+6.7%-1.2%+18.9%
Q4 2020-13.3%-16.2%+0.2%
Q3 2020-3.3%-0.7%+30.3%
Q2 2020+7.0%+0.9%+16.1%
Q1 2020-0.4%+0.7%+12.2%
Q4 2019-12.7%-13.2%-23.1%
Q3 2019+4.3%+5.2%+7.3%
Q2 2019+0.4%-1.5%-24.9%
Q1 2019-3.8%+1.5%-11.6%
Q4 2018+2.4%+1.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+7.4%+9.0%-0.7%
Q2 2018-13.5%-13.9%-12.5%
Q1 2018+5.5%-9.1%-10.9%
Q4 2017-5.8%-5.9%-15.8%
Q3 2017-2.6%+0.3%-9.1%
Q2 2017+0.8%+0.7%+3.7%
Q1 2017+15.1%+6.4%+5.7%
Q4 2016+0.7%+1.0%-5.4%
Q3 2016-14.0%-16.1%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.8%+11.2%+5.2%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015-4.3%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-3.5%
Q2 2014+6.5%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-6.7%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+1.8%

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