NASDAQ$UPST
Upstart Holdings Inc · Q4 2024 earnings
Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations
Briefing
Upstart reported strong revenue growth in Q4 2024, with a 56% YoY increase in total revenue and a significant reduction in net loss. Adjusted net income turned positive at $29.9 million, while operating losses narrowed substantially. The company achieved its highest adjusted EBITDA since Q1 2022 and improved its conversion rate to 19.3%.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly
$219M
Revenue by segment
Upstart · $147M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023
- Servicing & Other Fees$147M-18.2%100.0%
Forward guidance
Upstart expects revenue of approximately $200 million in Q1 2025, with an adjusted net income of $16 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $27 million. For the full year 2025, revenue is projected to reach $1 billion, with a positive GAAP net income.
Tailwinds
- Projected revenue of $1 billion for FY 2025
- Expected return to GAAP profitability in 2025
- Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecasted at $27 million
- Revenue from fees projected at $920 million in FY 2025
- Improved contribution margin expected at 57% in Q1 2025
Headwinds
- Q1 2025 GAAP net loss expected at $20 million
- Operating margin improvements still needed
- Higher interest costs could impact profitability
- Competitive pressures in AI lending remain a challenge
- Macroeconomic uncertainties could impact loan demand
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024
+4.9%
Avg return
Earnings day
+9.4%
Avg return
5 days after
+11.7%
Avg return
30 days after
42%
10 / 24 earnings
Positive
+91.7%
Q4 2020
Best reaction
-59.9%
Q1 2022
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -8.1% | -7.9% | -4.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | -15.0% | -21.3% | -32.3% | |
| Q3 2025 | -9.7% | -16.2% | +1.1% | |
| Q1 2025 | -9.6% | +3.0% | +5.7% | |
| Q4 2024 | +31.8% | +22.4% | -27.9% | |
| Q3 2024 | +50.1% | +28.6% | +42.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +39.8% | +52.2% | +50.0% | |
| Q1 2024 | -10.3% | -1.4% | +4.3% | |
| Q4 2023 | -25.4% | -26.2% | -34.5% | |
| Q3 2023 | -27.0% | -28.8% | +15.6% | |
| Q2 2023 | -34.5% | -35.5% | -38.8% | |
| Q1 2023 | +41.8% | +22.5% | +144.8% | |
| Q4 2022 | +34.2% | +13.9% | -1.8% | |
| Q3 2022 | -8.4% | +21.1% | -7.9% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.9% | +17.4% | -10.0% | |
| Q1 2022 | -59.9% | -54.5% | -48.3% | |
| Q4 2019 | -13.7% | -19.5% | -10.1% | |
| Q4 2021 | +41.5% | +24.3% | +11.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | -5.0% | -5.7% | -34.7% | |
| Q3 2021 | -23.3% | -21.0% | -46.3% | |
| Q2 2020 | +12.8% | +19.2% | +51.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | +24.8% | +48.2% | +111.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | +4.1% | +17.2% | +66.0% | |
| Q4 2020 | +91.7% | +174.6% | +74.3% | |
| Q1 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2019 | — | — | — |
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