NASDAQ$UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Upstart's performance declined due to industry headwinds, but secured long-term funding agreements.

Upstart announced its Q1 2023 financial results, revealing a decrease in revenue and a net loss. However, the company secured multiple long-term funding agreements expected to deliver over $2 billion to the platform over the next 12 months.

  • Total revenue was $103 million, a 67% decrease year-over-year.
  • Lending partners originated 84,084 loans, totaling $997 million, a 78% decrease year-over-year.
  • GAAP net loss was $(129) million, a decrease from $32.7 million in Q1 2022.
  • Contribution profit was $67.6 million, a 54% decrease year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$103M

Previous: $310M-66.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.47

Previous: $0.61-177.0%
Loans Originated

84.1K

Previous: 465.5K-81.9%
Conversion Rate

8.0%

Previous: 21.0%-61.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.11M

Previous: -$1.63M+31.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$130M

Previous: $31.1M-519.7%
Net Income

-$129M

Previous: $32.7M-495.4%
Operating Income

-$132M

Previous: $34.8M-478.5%
Gross Profit

$103M

Previous: $310M-66.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$387M

Previous: $1.01B-61.8%
Total Assets

$1.82B

Previous: $1.99B-8.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$74.1M

Previous: $25.1M+195.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly

$103M

Q1 2023-66.8%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Upstart · $117M total across 1 segment · Q1 2023

  • Servicing & Other Fees
    $117M-62.7%

Forward guidance

For the second quarter of 2023, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $135 million, a contribution margin of approximately 60%, a net loss of approximately $(40) million, adjusted net loss of approximately $(7) million, and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $0 million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue of approximately $135 million
  • Revenue From Fees of approximately $130 million
  • Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $5 million
  • Contribution Margin of approximately 60%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $0 million

Headwinds

  • Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(40) million
  • Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(7) million
  • Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 83.1 million shares
  • Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 83.1 million shares

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+4.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+9.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.7%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

10 / 24 earnings

Positive

+91.7%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-59.9%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.1%-7.9%-4.6%
Q4 2025-15.0%-21.3%-32.3%
Q3 2025-9.7%-16.2%+1.1%
Q1 2025-9.6%+3.0%+5.7%
Q4 2024+31.8%+22.4%-27.9%
Q3 2024+50.1%+28.6%+42.9%
Q2 2024+39.8%+52.2%+50.0%
Q1 2024-10.3%-1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2023-25.4%-26.2%-34.5%
Q3 2023-27.0%-28.8%+15.6%
Q2 2023-34.5%-35.5%-38.8%
Q1 2023+41.8%+22.5%+144.8%
Q4 2022+34.2%+13.9%-1.8%
Q3 2022-8.4%+21.1%-7.9%
Q2 2022-3.9%+17.4%-10.0%
Q1 2022-59.9%-54.5%-48.3%
Q4 2019-13.7%-19.5%-10.1%
Q4 2021+41.5%+24.3%+11.4%
Q3 2020-5.0%-5.7%-34.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-21.0%-46.3%
Q2 2020+12.8%+19.2%+51.8%
Q2 2021+24.8%+48.2%+111.1%
Q1 2021+4.1%+17.2%+66.0%
Q4 2020+91.7%+174.6%+74.3%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019

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