NASDAQ$UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Upstart's Q4 2023 financial performance reflected resilience amidst a challenging lending environment, with increased efficiency and groundwork laid for diversification.

Upstart's Q4 2023 total revenue reached $140 million, a 4% decrease year-over-year but a 4% increase sequentially. The company originated 129,664 loans totaling $1.3 billion. GAAP net loss was $(42.4) million, while adjusted EBITDA was $0.6 million.

  • Total revenue was $140 million, down 4% year-over-year.
  • 129,664 loans were originated, totaling $1.3 billion, a 19% decrease year-over-year.
  • GAAP net loss was $(42.4) million, an improvement from $(55.3) million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $0.6 million, up from $(16.6) million year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$140M

Previous: $147M-4.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.11

Previous: -$0.25+56.0%
Loans Originated

129.7K

Previous: 154.5K-16.1%
Conversion Rate

11.6%

Previous: 11.0%+5.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.67M

Previous: $1.74M-195.9%
Net Income

-$42.4M

Previous: -$55.3M+23.3%
Operating Income

-$47.5M

Previous: -$58.5M+18.8%
Gross Profit

$131M

Previous: $82M+60.1%
R&D Expense

$57.2M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$32.8M

Previous: $33.9M-3.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly

$140M

Q4 2023-4.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Upstart · $147M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Servicing & Other Fees
    $147M-18.2%

Forward guidance

For the first quarter of 2024, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $125 million, a contribution margin of approximately 61%, a net loss of approximately $(75) million, an adjusted net loss of approximately $(33) million, and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(25) million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue of approximately $125 million
  • Revenue From Fees of approximately $133 million
  • Contribution Margin of approximately 61%
  • Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 87.0 million shares
  • Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 87.0 million shares

Headwinds

  • Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $(8) million
  • Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(75) million
  • Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(33) million
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(25) million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+4.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+9.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.7%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

10 / 24 earnings

Positive

+91.7%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-59.9%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.1%-7.9%-4.6%
Q4 2025-15.0%-21.3%-32.3%
Q3 2025-9.7%-16.2%+1.1%
Q1 2025-9.6%+3.0%+5.7%
Q4 2024+31.8%+22.4%-27.9%
Q3 2024+50.1%+28.6%+42.9%
Q2 2024+39.8%+52.2%+50.0%
Q1 2024-10.3%-1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2023-25.4%-26.2%-34.5%
Q3 2023-27.0%-28.8%+15.6%
Q2 2023-34.5%-35.5%-38.8%
Q1 2023+41.8%+22.5%+144.8%
Q4 2022+34.2%+13.9%-1.8%
Q3 2022-8.4%+21.1%-7.9%
Q2 2022-3.9%+17.4%-10.0%
Q1 2022-59.9%-54.5%-48.3%
Q4 2019-13.7%-19.5%-10.1%
Q4 2021+41.5%+24.3%+11.4%
Q3 2020-5.0%-5.7%-34.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-21.0%-46.3%
Q2 2020+12.8%+19.2%+51.8%
Q2 2021+24.8%+48.2%+111.1%
Q1 2021+4.1%+17.2%+66.0%
Q4 2020+91.7%+174.6%+74.3%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019

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