NASDAQ$UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Upstart's financial performance showed improvement in efficiency and strategic investments for long-term growth.

Upstart reported a 24% increase in total revenue year-over-year, reaching $128 million. The company saw improvements in net loss, adjusted EBITDA, and contribution profit. They are focused on efficiency and anticipate sequential growth in the second half of the year and positive EBITDA by the end of the year.

  • Total revenue increased by 24% year-over-year to $128 million.
  • Transaction volume increased by 13% year-over-year with 119,380 loans originated, totaling $1.1 billion.
  • GAAP net loss improved to $(64.6) million, up from $(129.3) million in the same quarter of the prior year.
  • Conversion rate on rate requests increased to 14%, up from 8% in the same quarter of the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$128M

Previous: $103M+24.2%
EPS

-$0.74

Previous: -$0.47-57.4%
Loans Originated

119.4K

Previous: 84.1K+42.0%
Transaction Volume

$1.13B

No prior period
Conversion Rate

14.0%

Previous: 8.0%+75.0%
Loans Fully Automated

90.0%

No prior period
Contribution Margin

59.0%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

-$20.3M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$684K

Previous: -$1.11M+38.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$65.3M

Previous: -$130M+49.9%
Net Income

-$64.6M

Previous: -$129M+50.0%
Operating Income

-$67.5M

Previous: -$132M+48.8%
Gross Profit

$128M

Previous: $103M+24.2%
R&D Expense

$63.1M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$35.8M

Previous: $74.1M-51.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly

$128M

Q1 2024+24.2%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Upstart · $147M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Servicing & Other Fees
    $147M-18.2%

Forward guidance

For the second quarter of 2024, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $125 million, revenue from fees of approximately $135 million, net interest income (loss) of approximately $(10) million, contribution margin of approximately 56%, net income (loss) of approximately $(75) million, adjusted net income (loss) of approximately $(36) million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(25) million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue of approximately $125 million
  • Revenue From Fees of approximately $135 million
  • Contribution Margin of approximately 56%
  • Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(75) million
  • Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(36) million

Headwinds

  • Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $(10) million
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(25) million
  • Upstart has not reconciled the forward-looking non-GAAP measures above to comparable forward-looking GAAP measures because of the potential variability and uncertainty of incurring these costs and expenses in the future.
  • Accordingly, a reconciliation is not available without unreasonable effort.
  • All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that we expected.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

+4.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+9.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.7%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

10 / 24 earnings

Positive

+91.7%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-59.9%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.1%-7.9%-4.6%
Q4 2025-15.0%-21.3%-32.3%
Q3 2025-9.7%-16.2%+1.1%
Q1 2025-9.6%+3.0%+5.7%
Q4 2024+31.8%+22.4%-27.9%
Q3 2024+50.1%+28.6%+42.9%
Q2 2024+39.8%+52.2%+50.0%
Q1 2024-10.3%-1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2023-25.4%-26.2%-34.5%
Q3 2023-27.0%-28.8%+15.6%
Q2 2023-34.5%-35.5%-38.8%
Q1 2023+41.8%+22.5%+144.8%
Q4 2022+34.2%+13.9%-1.8%
Q3 2022-8.4%+21.1%-7.9%
Q2 2022-3.9%+17.4%-10.0%
Q1 2022-59.9%-54.5%-48.3%
Q4 2019-13.7%-19.5%-10.1%
Q4 2021+41.5%+24.3%+11.4%
Q3 2020-5.0%-5.7%-34.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-21.0%-46.3%
Q2 2020+12.8%+19.2%+51.8%
Q2 2021+24.8%+48.2%+111.1%
Q1 2021+4.1%+17.2%+66.0%
Q4 2020+91.7%+174.6%+74.3%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019

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