NASDAQ$UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Upstart's performance reflected a mix of challenges and strategic adjustments. The company focused on maintaining profitability and investing in AI capabilities amidst a decrease in revenue and loan origination volume.

Upstart reported a revenue of $135 million, a 14% decrease compared to the third quarter of 2022. The company experienced a net loss of $40.3 million, but improved from a loss of $56.2 million in the same quarter of the previous year. Despite the revenue decline, Upstart achieved adjusted EBITDA positivity for the second consecutive quarter and maintained high contribution margins.

  • Total revenue was $135 million, a 14% decrease year-over-year.
  • Lending partners originated 114,464 loans, totaling $1.2 billion, a 34% decrease year-over-year.
  • GAAP net loss was $(40.3) million, improved from $(56.2) million year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $2.3 million, up from $(14.4) million year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$135M

Previous: $157M-14.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.05

Previous: -$0.24+79.2%
Loans Originated

114.5K

Previous: 188.5K-39.3%
Conversion Rate

9.5%

Previous: 10.0%-5.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.29M

Previous: -$7.09M+81.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$41.6M

Previous: -$63.3M+34.3%
Net Income

-$40.3M

Previous: -$56.2M+28.3%
Operating Income

-$43.8M

Previous: -$58.1M+24.5%
Gross Profit

$135M

Previous: $157M-14.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$615M

Previous: $684M-10.1%
Total Assets

$2B

Previous: $1.92B+4.5%
R&D Expense

$54.9M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$35.6M

Previous: $36.7M-3.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly

$135M

Q3 2023-14.4%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Upstart · $147M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Servicing & Other Fees
    $147M-18.2%

Forward guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2023, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $135 million, Revenue From Fees of approximately $150 million, Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $(15.0) million, Contribution Margin of approximately 62%, Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(48) million, Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(14) million, Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $0 million, Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 85.6 million shares and Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 85.6 million shares

Tailwinds

  • Revenue From Fees of approximately $150 million
  • Contribution Margin of approximately 62%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $0 million
  • Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 85.6 million shares
  • Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 85.6 million shares

Headwinds

  • Revenue of approximately $135 million
  • Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $(15.0) million
  • Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(48) million
  • Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(14) million
  • Upstart has not reconciled the forward-looking non-GAAP measures above to comparable forward-looking GAAP measures because of the potential variability and uncertainty of incurring these costs and expenses in the future

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+4.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+9.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.7%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

10 / 24 earnings

Positive

+91.7%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-59.9%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.1%-7.9%-4.6%
Q4 2025-15.0%-21.3%-32.3%
Q3 2025-9.7%-16.2%+1.1%
Q1 2025-9.6%+3.0%+5.7%
Q4 2024+31.8%+22.4%-27.9%
Q3 2024+50.1%+28.6%+42.9%
Q2 2024+39.8%+52.2%+50.0%
Q1 2024-10.3%-1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2023-25.4%-26.2%-34.5%
Q3 2023-27.0%-28.8%+15.6%
Q2 2023-34.5%-35.5%-38.8%
Q1 2023+41.8%+22.5%+144.8%
Q4 2022+34.2%+13.9%-1.8%
Q3 2022-8.4%+21.1%-7.9%
Q2 2022-3.9%+17.4%-10.0%
Q1 2022-59.9%-54.5%-48.3%
Q4 2019-13.7%-19.5%-10.1%
Q4 2021+41.5%+24.3%+11.4%
Q3 2020-5.0%-5.7%-34.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-21.0%-46.3%
Q2 2020+12.8%+19.2%+51.8%
Q2 2021+24.8%+48.2%+111.1%
Q1 2021+4.1%+17.2%+66.0%
Q4 2020+91.7%+174.6%+74.3%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019

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