NASDAQ$UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Upstart's performance reflected a decrease in revenue and a net loss, but showed improvements in AI model, funding supply, and operating efficiency.

Upstart reported a decrease in revenue to $128 million, a GAAP net loss of $54.5 million, and a diluted EPS of $(0.62) for Q2 2024. However, the company saw improvements in its AI model, funding supply, and operating efficiency.

  • Total revenue was $128 million, a 6% decrease year-over-year.
  • 143,900 loans were originated, totaling $1.1 billion, a 6% decrease year-over-year.
  • Conversion rate on rate requests was 15%, up from 9% year-over-year.
  • GAAP net loss was $54.5 million, down from $28.2 million year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$128M

Previous: $136M-6.0%
EPS

-$0.62

Previous: $0.06-1133.3%
Loans Originated

143.9K

Previous: 109.4K+31.5%
Transaction Volume

$1.11B

No prior period
Conversion Rate

15.2%

Previous: 9.0%+68.9%
Loans Fully Automated

91.0%

No prior period
Contribution Margin

58.0%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

-$9.26M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$721K

Previous: -$1.15M+37.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$55.2M

Previous: -$29.3M-88.3%
Net Income

-$54.5M

Previous: -$28.2M-93.4%
Operating Income

-$55.5M

Previous: -$33.3M-66.4%
Gross Profit

$128M

Previous: $136M-6.0%
R&D Expense

$58.5M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$34.2M

Previous: $32.6M+4.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly

$128M

Q2 2024-6%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Upstart · $147M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Servicing & Other Fees
    $147M-18.2%

Forward guidance

For the third quarter of 2024, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $150 million, a contribution margin of approximately 57%, a net loss of approximately $(49) million, and an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(5) million. For the second half of 2024, Upstart expects revenue from fees of approximately $320 million, and positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue of approximately $150 million
  • Revenue From Fees of approximately $155 million
  • Contribution Margin of approximately 57%
  • Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 90.0 million shares
  • Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 90.0 million shares

Headwinds

  • Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $(5) million
  • Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(49) million
  • Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately $(14) million
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(5) million
  • Upstart has not reconciled the forward-looking non-GAAP measures above to comparable forward-looking GAAP measures because of the potential variability and uncertainty of incurring these costs and expenses in the future.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

+4.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+9.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.7%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

10 / 24 earnings

Positive

+91.7%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-59.9%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.1%-7.9%-4.6%
Q4 2025-15.0%-21.3%-32.3%
Q3 2025-9.7%-16.2%+1.1%
Q1 2025-9.6%+3.0%+5.7%
Q4 2024+31.8%+22.4%-27.9%
Q3 2024+50.1%+28.6%+42.9%
Q2 2024+39.8%+52.2%+50.0%
Q1 2024-10.3%-1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2023-25.4%-26.2%-34.5%
Q3 2023-27.0%-28.8%+15.6%
Q2 2023-34.5%-35.5%-38.8%
Q1 2023+41.8%+22.5%+144.8%
Q4 2022+34.2%+13.9%-1.8%
Q3 2022-8.4%+21.1%-7.9%
Q2 2022-3.9%+17.4%-10.0%
Q1 2022-59.9%-54.5%-48.3%
Q4 2019-13.7%-19.5%-10.1%
Q4 2021+41.5%+24.3%+11.4%
Q3 2020-5.0%-5.7%-34.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-21.0%-46.3%
Q2 2020+12.8%+19.2%+51.8%
Q2 2021+24.8%+48.2%+111.1%
Q1 2021+4.1%+17.2%+66.0%
Q4 2020+91.7%+174.6%+74.3%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019

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