NASDAQ$UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Upstart's financial results were impacted by economic headwinds and funding challenges, but the company made advancements in technology and AI model development.

Upstart's Q4 2022 total revenue was $147 million, a 52% decrease year-over-year. Lending partners originated 154,478 loans, totaling $1.5 billion, down 62% from the prior year. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $55.3 million, with a diluted loss per share of $(0.67).

  • Total revenue decreased by 52% to $147 million compared to Q4 2021.
  • Lending partners originated 154,478 loans, totaling $1.5 billion, a 62% decrease year-over-year.
  • GAAP net loss was $(55.3) million, down from a net income of $58.9 million in Q4 2021.
  • Conversion rate on rate requests was 11%, down from 24% in the same quarter of the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$147M

Previous: $305M-51.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.25

Previous: $0.89-128.1%
Loans Originated

154.5K

Previous: 405.5K-61.9%
Conversion Rate

11.0%

Previous: 24.0%-54.2%
Capital Expenditures

$1.74M

Previous: $3.47M-50.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$255M

Previous: -$14.6M-1642.1%
Net Income

-$55.3M

Previous: $58.9M-193.8%
Operating Income

-$58.5M

Previous: $60.9M-196.1%
Gross Profit

$82M

Previous: $264M-69.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$422M

Previous: $1.19B-64.5%
Total Assets

$1.94B

Previous: $1.82B+6.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$33.9M

Previous: $23.1M+47.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Upstart · Revenue · Quarterly

$147M

Q4 2022-51.8%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Upstart · $156M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • Servicing & Other Fees
    $156M-45.9%

Forward guidance

For the first quarter of 2023, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $100 million, a contribution margin of approximately 55%, a net loss of approximately ($145) million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately ($45) million, and a basic weighted-average share count of approximately 81.9 million shares.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue of approximately $100 million
  • Revenue From Fees of approximately $110 million
  • Contribution Margin of approximately 55%
  • Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 81.9 million shares
  • Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 81.9 million shares

Headwinds

  • Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately ($10) million
  • Net Income (Loss) of approximately ($145) million
  • Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately ($70) million
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately ($45) million
  • Upstart has not reconciled the forward-looking non-GAAP measures above to comparable forward-looking GAAP measures because of the potential variability and uncertainty of incurring these costs and expenses in the future.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+4.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+9.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.7%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

10 / 24 earnings

Positive

+91.7%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-59.9%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-8.1%-7.9%-4.6%
Q4 2025-15.0%-21.3%-32.3%
Q3 2025-9.7%-16.2%+1.1%
Q1 2025-9.6%+3.0%+5.7%
Q4 2024+31.8%+22.4%-27.9%
Q3 2024+50.1%+28.6%+42.9%
Q2 2024+39.8%+52.2%+50.0%
Q1 2024-10.3%-1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2023-25.4%-26.2%-34.5%
Q3 2023-27.0%-28.8%+15.6%
Q2 2023-34.5%-35.5%-38.8%
Q1 2023+41.8%+22.5%+144.8%
Q4 2022+34.2%+13.9%-1.8%
Q3 2022-8.4%+21.1%-7.9%
Q2 2022-3.9%+17.4%-10.0%
Q1 2022-59.9%-54.5%-48.3%
Q4 2019-13.7%-19.5%-10.1%
Q4 2021+41.5%+24.3%+11.4%
Q3 2020-5.0%-5.7%-34.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-21.0%-46.3%
Q2 2020+12.8%+19.2%+51.8%
Q2 2021+24.8%+48.2%+111.1%
Q1 2021+4.1%+17.2%+66.0%
Q4 2020+91.7%+174.6%+74.3%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro