NASDAQ$CINF

Cincinnati Financial Corp · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cincinnati Financial's Q4 2019 net income increased, driven by investment gains and property casualty underwriting profit.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported a significant increase in fourth-quarter net income, reaching $626 million or $3.79 per share, compared to a net loss in the previous year. Non-GAAP operating income also rose, and the company's book value per share hit a record high. The increase in net income was largely due to investment gains and improved property casualty underwriting profit.

  • Net income for Q4 2019 was $626 million, or $3.79 per share, a substantial increase from the net loss in Q4 2018.
  • Non-GAAP operating income for Q4 2019 increased by 28% to $203 million, or $1.23 per share.
  • Book value per share reached a record high of $60.55 at the end of 2019, up 25.9% from the previous year.
  • The property casualty combined ratio improved to 91.6% in Q4 2019 from 93.9% in Q4 2018.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.15B

Previous: $710M+203.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.23

Previous: $0.98+25.5%
Combined Ratio

91.6%

Previous: 93.9%-2.4%
Book Value Per Share

$60.55

No prior period
Net Written Premiums

$1.31B

No prior period
Property Casualty Underwriting Profit

$119M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$2M

Previous: $6M-66.7%
Free Cash Flow

$326M

Previous: $349M-6.6%
Net Income

$626M

Previous: -$452M+238.5%
Operating Income

$781M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$2.15B

Previous: $710M+203.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$767M

Previous: $784M-2.2%
Total Assets

$25.4B

Previous: $21.9B+15.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$7M

Previous: $6M+16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Cincinnati Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.15B

Q4 2019+203.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cincinnati Financial · $1.4B total across 4 segments · Q4 2019

  • Commercial Lines Insurance
    $854M
  • Personal Lines Insurance
    $359M
  • Life Insurance
    $106M
  • Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance
    $76M

Forward guidance

The company is focused on balancing growth and profitability, refining pricing precision, and leveraging agency relationships and claims service to attract and retain high-quality business. They anticipate recording new business from Cincinnati Global and will continue to increase regular annual dividends.

Tailwinds

  • Balance growth and profitability
  • Refine pricing precision
  • Leverage agency relationships
  • Maintain strong claims service
  • Increase regular annual dividends

Headwinds

  • Challenging market environment in 2020
  • Volatility from accounting rule changes
  • Potential for increased competition
  • Risk of catastrophe losses
  • Economic instability or recession

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-2.2%-4.0%
Q4 2025-3.3%-3.5%-2.6%
Q3 2025-3.8%-1.9%+6.9%
Q2 2025-2.0%-0.3%+1.8%
Q1 2025+2.9%+5.7%+10.4%
Q4 2024+2.8%+1.0%+4.7%
Q3 2024+1.7%+2.2%+12.7%
Q2 2024+3.3%+8.5%+10.6%
Q1 2024-7.5%-3.5%-1.9%
Q4 2023-4.2%-2.6%+4.9%
Q3 2023-0.8%+1.3%+4.4%
Q2 2023+5.8%+4.6%+0.6%
Q1 2023+4.6%+1.8%-3.4%
Q4 2022+10.9%+9.2%+13.7%
Q3 2022-3.2%-2.6%+8.3%
Q2 2022-14.0%-16.5%-11.3%
Q1 2022-9.1%-9.5%-4.9%
Q4 2021+7.2%+5.1%+10.7%
Q3 2021+2.5%-2.1%-4.7%
Q2 2021+1.4%+2.6%+7.2%
Q1 2021+2.8%+6.0%+12.2%
Q4 2020+4.8%+6.0%+23.4%
Q3 2020-4.6%-8.6%+1.5%
Q2 2020+0.2%-6.4%-5.7%
Q1 2020-8.6%-22.4%-21.8%
Q4 2019+6.4%+7.6%-7.4%
Q3 2019-2.0%-2.3%-7.2%
Q2 2019+1.0%-0.0%+6.0%
Q1 2019+7.6%+9.2%+14.6%
Q4 2018+2.1%+1.8%+2.3%
Q3 2018+7.2%+9.8%+10.4%
Q2 2018+4.4%+6.1%+7.3%
Q1 2018-4.7%-6.2%-6.0%
Q4 2017-3.1%+2.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017-6.2%-7.4%-4.3%
Q2 2017+5.3%+4.5%+0.6%
Q1 2017+1.7%-1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2016-0.3%+1.9%+5.0%
Q3 2016-1.4%-2.4%+5.5%
Q2 2016-0.1%-0.3%+2.6%
Q1 2016+2.7%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015+2.7%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014-0.4%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.8%
Q4 2013-4.3%
Q3 2013+0.1%
Q2 2013+0.9%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.9%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2010-2.5%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q3 2009-2.3%
Q3 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009-0.6%

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