NASDAQ$CINF

Cincinnati Financial Corp · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cincinnati Financial experienced a net loss and a decrease in non-GAAP operating income due to a reduction in the fair value of equity securities and increased catastrophe losses.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported a net loss of $808 million for the second quarter of 2022, compared to a net income of $703 million in the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating income decreased by 64% to $104 million. The company's book value per share decreased to $66.30. The combined ratio for the property casualty business was 103.2%.

  • Second-quarter net loss was $808 million, or $5.06 per share, compared to net income of $703 million, or $4.31 per share, in the second quarter of 2021.
  • Non-GAAP operating income decreased 64% to $104 million, or 65 cents per share, compared with $292 million, or $1.79 per share, in the second quarter of last year.
  • Book value per share at June 30, 2022, was $66.30, down $15.42 since year-end.
  • The property casualty combined ratio for the second quarter of 2022 was 103.2%, up from 85.5% for the second quarter of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$820M

Previous: $2.3B-64.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.65

Previous: $1.79-63.7%
Combined Ratio

103.2%

Previous: 85.5%+20.7%
Net Written Premiums

$1.96B

Previous: $1.71B+14.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$8M

Previous: -$9M+11.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$816M

Previous: $694M-217.6%
Net Income

-$808M

Previous: $703M-214.9%
Operating Income

-$822M

Previous: $1.08B-176.1%
Gross Profit

-$817M

Previous: $1.09B-175.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.1B

Previous: $1B+9.5%
Total Assets

$29.2B

Previous: $29.7B-1.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$9M

Previous: $8M+12.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Cincinnati Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$820M

Q2 2022-64.3%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cincinnati Financial · $1.65B total across 4 segments · Q2 2022

  • Commercial Lines Insurance
    $995M+9.1%
  • Personal Lines Insurance
    $414M+8.1%
  • Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance
    $124M+29.2%
  • Life Insurance
    $119M-5.6%

Forward guidance

Cincinnati Financial is optimistic that continuing to adjust their predictive models and staying focused on pricing segmentation can lead to improved results, allowing them to again produce a full-year combined ratio in the low- to mid-90s.

Tailwinds

  • Continuing to adjust predictive models
  • Staying focused on pricing segmentation
  • New small business program, CinergySM, introduced to agents in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, with additional states planned for the remainder of 2022
  • Cincinnati Re® and Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd.SM boosted growth, contributing 3 points and 1 point, respectively, to the six-month total, while also contributing meaningful amounts of underwriting profit.
  • The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company had a strong first half of the year, increasing term insurance earned premiums 7% and reaching a record $31 million in operating income.

Headwinds

  • Investment income increased nicely producing our main source of profits in the second quarter and bringing our total non-GAAP operating income to $357 million for the first half of the year.
  • Our insurance business experienced an underwriting loss for the second quarter with a 103.2% combined ratio, resulting in part from an 8.5-point increase in catastrophe losses compared with second quarter 2021.
  • Took prudent reserving action in the quarter, reflecting elevated inflation in assorted forms and our belief that various pandemic effects have distorted paid loss cost trends.
  • Commercial umbrella coverages – part of our commercial casualty line of business – had a particularly large impact, despite representing only 7% of our full-year 2021 property casualty earned premiums.
  • Continued downward pressure in both the equity and bond markets contributed to a decline in book value per share.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-2.2%-4.0%
Q4 2025-3.3%-3.5%-2.6%
Q3 2025-3.8%-1.9%+6.9%
Q2 2025-2.0%-0.3%+1.8%
Q1 2025+2.9%+5.7%+10.4%
Q4 2024+2.8%+1.0%+4.7%
Q3 2024+1.7%+2.2%+12.7%
Q2 2024+3.3%+8.5%+10.6%
Q1 2024-7.5%-3.5%-1.9%
Q4 2023-4.2%-2.6%+4.9%
Q3 2023-0.8%+1.3%+4.4%
Q2 2023+5.8%+4.6%+0.6%
Q1 2023+4.6%+1.8%-3.4%
Q4 2022+10.9%+9.2%+13.7%
Q3 2022-3.2%-2.6%+8.3%
Q2 2022-14.0%-16.5%-11.3%
Q1 2022-9.1%-9.5%-4.9%
Q4 2021+7.2%+5.1%+10.7%
Q3 2021+2.5%-2.1%-4.7%
Q2 2021+1.4%+2.6%+7.2%
Q1 2021+2.8%+6.0%+12.2%
Q4 2020+4.8%+6.0%+23.4%
Q3 2020-4.6%-8.6%+1.5%
Q2 2020+0.2%-6.4%-5.7%
Q1 2020-8.6%-22.4%-21.8%
Q4 2019+6.4%+7.6%-7.4%
Q3 2019-2.0%-2.3%-7.2%
Q2 2019+1.0%-0.0%+6.0%
Q1 2019+7.6%+9.2%+14.6%
Q4 2018+2.1%+1.8%+2.3%
Q3 2018+7.2%+9.8%+10.4%
Q2 2018+4.4%+6.1%+7.3%
Q1 2018-4.7%-6.2%-6.0%
Q4 2017-3.1%+2.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017-6.2%-7.4%-4.3%
Q2 2017+5.3%+4.5%+0.6%
Q1 2017+1.7%-1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2016-0.3%+1.9%+5.0%
Q3 2016-1.4%-2.4%+5.5%
Q2 2016-0.1%-0.3%+2.6%
Q1 2016+2.7%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015+2.7%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014-0.4%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.8%
Q4 2013-4.3%
Q3 2013+0.1%
Q2 2013+0.9%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.9%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2010-2.5%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q3 2009-2.3%
Q3 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009-0.6%

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