NASDAQ$CINF

Cincinnati Financial Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cincinnati Financial reported a net loss, but non-GAAP operating income increased significantly due to underwriting profits and investment income.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported a net loss of $99 million, or $0.63 per share, for the third quarter of 2023, compared to a net loss of $416 million, or $2.63 per share, in the third quarter of 2022. However, non-GAAP operating income increased by 125% to $261 million, or $1.66 per share, compared to $116 million, or $0.74 per share, in the third quarter of last year. The company's book value per share was $67.72 at September 30, 2023, up $0.51 since year-end.

  • Third-quarter net loss of $99 million, or $0.63 per share.
  • Non-GAAP operating income increased by 125% to $261 million, or $1.66 per share.
  • Book value per share at September 30, 2023, was $67.72, up $0.51 since year-end.
  • Property casualty combined ratio improved to 94.4% from 103.9% in the third quarter of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.81B

Previous: $1.41B+28.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.66

Previous: $0.73+127.4%
Combined Ratio

94.4%

Previous: 103.9%-9.1%
Book Value Per Share

$67.72

Previous: $60.01+12.8%
Net Written Premiums

$1.96B

Previous: $1.75B+11.8%
Property Casualty Underwriting Profit

$112M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$10M

Previous: -$12M+16.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$109M

Previous: -$430M+74.7%
Net Income

-$99M

Previous: -$418M+76.3%
Operating Income

$101M

Previous: -$368M+127.4%
Gross Profit

$106M

Previous: -$364M+129.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$899M

Previous: $1.08B-17.0%
Total Assets

$30.9B

Previous: $28.2B+9.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Cincinnati Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.81B

Q3 2023+28.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cincinnati Financial · $1.73B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Commercial Lines Insurance
    $1.06B+3.3%
  • Personal Lines Insurance
    $528M+22.2%
  • Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance
    $136M+7.9%

Forward guidance

Cincinnati Financial expects to enhance growth opportunities by appointing new agencies and entering new states, with plans to open Nevada for commercial lines business in the fourth quarter. They are confident in their ability to produce value for shareholders through their multi-pronged strategy to profitably grow their insurance business.

Tailwinds

  • Investments in pricing and risk management expertise
  • Geographic and product diversification
  • New agency appointments
  • Entry into new states
  • Ongoing ability to produce value for shareholders

Headwinds

  • Challenging market conditions
  • Declines in stock and bond portfolio values
  • Competitive market for commercial lines
  • Potential for catastrophe losses
  • Uncertainty in the insurance market

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-2.2%-4.0%
Q4 2025-3.3%-3.5%-2.6%
Q3 2025-3.8%-1.9%+6.9%
Q2 2025-2.0%-0.3%+1.8%
Q1 2025+2.9%+5.7%+10.4%
Q4 2024+2.8%+1.0%+4.7%
Q3 2024+1.7%+2.2%+12.7%
Q2 2024+3.3%+8.5%+10.6%
Q1 2024-7.5%-3.5%-1.9%
Q4 2023-4.2%-2.6%+4.9%
Q3 2023-0.8%+1.3%+4.4%
Q2 2023+5.8%+4.6%+0.6%
Q1 2023+4.6%+1.8%-3.4%
Q4 2022+10.9%+9.2%+13.7%
Q3 2022-3.2%-2.6%+8.3%
Q2 2022-14.0%-16.5%-11.3%
Q1 2022-9.1%-9.5%-4.9%
Q4 2021+7.2%+5.1%+10.7%
Q3 2021+2.5%-2.1%-4.7%
Q2 2021+1.4%+2.6%+7.2%
Q1 2021+2.8%+6.0%+12.2%
Q4 2020+4.8%+6.0%+23.4%
Q3 2020-4.6%-8.6%+1.5%
Q2 2020+0.2%-6.4%-5.7%
Q1 2020-8.6%-22.4%-21.8%
Q4 2019+6.4%+7.6%-7.4%
Q3 2019-2.0%-2.3%-7.2%
Q2 2019+1.0%-0.0%+6.0%
Q1 2019+7.6%+9.2%+14.6%
Q4 2018+2.1%+1.8%+2.3%
Q3 2018+7.2%+9.8%+10.4%
Q2 2018+4.4%+6.1%+7.3%
Q1 2018-4.7%-6.2%-6.0%
Q4 2017-3.1%+2.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017-6.2%-7.4%-4.3%
Q2 2017+5.3%+4.5%+0.6%
Q1 2017+1.7%-1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2016-0.3%+1.9%+5.0%
Q3 2016-1.4%-2.4%+5.5%
Q2 2016-0.1%-0.3%+2.6%
Q1 2016+2.7%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015+2.7%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014-0.4%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.8%
Q4 2013-4.3%
Q3 2013+0.1%
Q2 2013+0.9%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.9%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2010-2.5%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q3 2009-2.3%
Q3 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009-0.6%

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