NASDAQ$CINF

Cincinnati Financial Corp · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cincinnati Financial reported a decrease in net income but an increase in non-GAAP operating income, driven by improvements in the property casualty combined ratio and growth in net written premiums.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported a decrease in net income, primarily due to lower net investment gains, but experienced significant growth in non-GAAP operating income driven by improvements in its insurance business. The company's book value per share increased, and it maintained a strong balance sheet.

  • Third-quarter net income decreased to $153 million, or 94 cents per share, compared to $484 million, or $2.99 per share, in the third quarter of 2020.
  • Non-GAAP operating income increased by 232% to $209 million, or $1.28 per share, compared to $63 million, or 39 cents per share, in the third quarter of last year.
  • The property casualty combined ratio improved to 92.6% from 103.6% in the third quarter of 2020.
  • Book value per share increased to $73.49 at September 30, 2021, up $6.45 since year-end.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.79B

Previous: $2.23B-19.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.28

Previous: $0.39+228.2%
Combined Ratio

92.6%

Previous: 103.6%-10.6%
Book Value Per Share

$73.49

Previous: $60.57+21.3%
Net Written Premiums

$1.54B

Previous: $1.39B+10.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$12M

Previous: -$16M+25.0%
Free Cash Flow

$141M

Previous: $468M-69.9%
Net Income

$153M

Previous: $484M-68.4%
Operating Income

$396M

Previous: $793M-50.1%
Gross Profit

$401M

Previous: $798M-49.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.09B

Previous: $914M+18.7%
Total Assets

$29.9B

Previous: $26.4B+13.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $8M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Cincinnati Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.79B

Q3 2021-19.8%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cincinnati Financial · $1.55B total across 4 segments · Q3 2021

  • Commercial Lines Insurance
    $931M+7.5%
  • Personal Lines Insurance
    $389M+5.7%
  • Life Insurance
    $120M+5.3%
  • Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance
    $106M+29.3%

Forward guidance

The company did not provide specific forward guidance but highlighted ongoing efforts in pricing segmentation, collaboration between sales, underwriting, and analytics, and a strong balance sheet providing flexibility for business growth and shareholder dividends.

Tailwinds

  • Continued efforts in pricing segmentation across organization
  • Strong collaboration between associates in sales, underwriting and analytics
  • Achieved strong non-GAAP operating income results
  • Maintaining consistent approach to setting reserves
  • Strong balance sheet gives flexibility to pursue business growth and pay shareholder dividends

Headwinds

  • Catastrophe losses for the quarter outpaced the 5-year average
  • Net income decrease primarily due to the after-tax net effect of a decrease in net investment gains
  • Life insurance subsidiary net income decreased
  • Increase in the underwriting expense ratio primarily due to higher levels of profit-sharing commissions for agencies
  • Claims on average are remaining open longer than previously expected.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-2.2%-4.0%
Q4 2025-3.3%-3.5%-2.6%
Q3 2025-3.8%-1.9%+6.9%
Q2 2025-2.0%-0.3%+1.8%
Q1 2025+2.9%+5.7%+10.4%
Q4 2024+2.8%+1.0%+4.7%
Q3 2024+1.7%+2.2%+12.7%
Q2 2024+3.3%+8.5%+10.6%
Q1 2024-7.5%-3.5%-1.9%
Q4 2023-4.2%-2.6%+4.9%
Q3 2023-0.8%+1.3%+4.4%
Q2 2023+5.8%+4.6%+0.6%
Q1 2023+4.6%+1.8%-3.4%
Q4 2022+10.9%+9.2%+13.7%
Q3 2022-3.2%-2.6%+8.3%
Q2 2022-14.0%-16.5%-11.3%
Q1 2022-9.1%-9.5%-4.9%
Q4 2021+7.2%+5.1%+10.7%
Q3 2021+2.5%-2.1%-4.7%
Q2 2021+1.4%+2.6%+7.2%
Q1 2021+2.8%+6.0%+12.2%
Q4 2020+4.8%+6.0%+23.4%
Q3 2020-4.6%-8.6%+1.5%
Q2 2020+0.2%-6.4%-5.7%
Q1 2020-8.6%-22.4%-21.8%
Q4 2019+6.4%+7.6%-7.4%
Q3 2019-2.0%-2.3%-7.2%
Q2 2019+1.0%-0.0%+6.0%
Q1 2019+7.6%+9.2%+14.6%
Q4 2018+2.1%+1.8%+2.3%
Q3 2018+7.2%+9.8%+10.4%
Q2 2018+4.4%+6.1%+7.3%
Q1 2018-4.7%-6.2%-6.0%
Q4 2017-3.1%+2.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017-6.2%-7.4%-4.3%
Q2 2017+5.3%+4.5%+0.6%
Q1 2017+1.7%-1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2016-0.3%+1.9%+5.0%
Q3 2016-1.4%-2.4%+5.5%
Q2 2016-0.1%-0.3%+2.6%
Q1 2016+2.7%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015+2.7%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014-0.4%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.8%
Q4 2013-4.3%
Q3 2013+0.1%
Q2 2013+0.9%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.9%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2010-2.5%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q3 2009-2.3%
Q3 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009-0.6%

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