NASDAQ$CINF

Cincinnati Financial Corp · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cincinnati Financial reported second-quarter results with net income increasing but non-GAAP operating income decreasing due to catastrophe losses and pandemic-related effects.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported a significant increase in net income for the second quarter of 2020, primarily driven by gains in the fair value of equity securities. However, non-GAAP operating income decreased due to catastrophe losses and pandemic-related impacts. The company remains focused on business fundamentals and core underwriting.

  • Second-quarter net income increased to $909 million, or $5.63 per share, compared to $428 million, or $2.59 per share, in the second quarter of 2019.
  • Non-GAAP operating income decreased by 49% to $71 million, or $0.44 per share, compared to $140 million, or $0.85 per share, in the second quarter of the previous year.
  • The combined ratio for the second quarter of 2020 was 103.1%, up from 96.5% in the second quarter of 2019.
  • Book value per share decreased to $57.56 at June 30, 2020, down $2.99 or 5.0% since year-end.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.71B

Previous: $1.91B+41.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.44

Previous: $0.85-48.2%
Combined Ratio

103.1%

Previous: 96.5%+6.8%
Book Value Per Share

$57.56

No prior period
Net Written Premiums

$1.56B

Previous: $1.48B+5.6%
Property Casualty Underwriting Profit

-$41M

Previous: $48M-185.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$10M

Previous: -$13M+23.1%
Free Cash Flow

$899M

Previous: $415M+116.6%
Net Income

$909M

Previous: $428M+112.4%
Operating Income

$1.35B

Previous: $722M+86.6%
Gross Profit

$1.35B

Previous: $726M+86.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$706M

Previous: $803M-12.1%
Total Assets

$25.5B

Previous: $24.3B+4.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$7M

Previous: $7M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Cincinnati Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.71B

Q2 2020+41.9%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cincinnati Financial · $1.43B total across 4 segments · Q2 2020

  • Commercial Lines Insurance
    $871M+5.7%
  • Personal Lines Insurance
    $365M+4.6%
  • Life Insurance
    $120M+14.3%
  • Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance
    $78M+16.4%

Forward guidance

Cincinnati Financial is maintaining a long-term perspective with its investment philosophy and remains focused on its insurance business. The company is confident in its ability to provide cash for investment and earnings that support future shareholder dividends and add to book value.

Tailwinds

  • The company will proactively manage risks.
  • The company will promptly pay covered claims.
  • The company will deliver long-term value for shareholders.
  • Commercial, personal and excess insurance pricing rose at a percentage in the mid-single digits.
  • The company has a dedicated team and experienced claims associates.

Headwinds

  • The company experienced a $41 million underwriting loss in the second quarter.
  • Catastrophe-related losses totaled $231 million.
  • Pandemic-related loss and expense effects totaled $65 million.
  • The impact of catastrophe losses this quarter was higher than the five-year second-quarter average.
  • The 2018 Financial Accounting Standards Board's rule change continues to produce increased volatility in the company’s results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-2.2%-4.0%
Q4 2025-3.3%-3.5%-2.6%
Q3 2025-3.8%-1.9%+6.9%
Q2 2025-2.0%-0.3%+1.8%
Q1 2025+2.9%+5.7%+10.4%
Q4 2024+2.8%+1.0%+4.7%
Q3 2024+1.7%+2.2%+12.7%
Q2 2024+3.3%+8.5%+10.6%
Q1 2024-7.5%-3.5%-1.9%
Q4 2023-4.2%-2.6%+4.9%
Q3 2023-0.8%+1.3%+4.4%
Q2 2023+5.8%+4.6%+0.6%
Q1 2023+4.6%+1.8%-3.4%
Q4 2022+10.9%+9.2%+13.7%
Q3 2022-3.2%-2.6%+8.3%
Q2 2022-14.0%-16.5%-11.3%
Q1 2022-9.1%-9.5%-4.9%
Q4 2021+7.2%+5.1%+10.7%
Q3 2021+2.5%-2.1%-4.7%
Q2 2021+1.4%+2.6%+7.2%
Q1 2021+2.8%+6.0%+12.2%
Q4 2020+4.8%+6.0%+23.4%
Q3 2020-4.6%-8.6%+1.5%
Q2 2020+0.2%-6.4%-5.7%
Q1 2020-8.6%-22.4%-21.8%
Q4 2019+6.4%+7.6%-7.4%
Q3 2019-2.0%-2.3%-7.2%
Q2 2019+1.0%-0.0%+6.0%
Q1 2019+7.6%+9.2%+14.6%
Q4 2018+2.1%+1.8%+2.3%
Q3 2018+7.2%+9.8%+10.4%
Q2 2018+4.4%+6.1%+7.3%
Q1 2018-4.7%-6.2%-6.0%
Q4 2017-3.1%+2.4%+6.1%
Q3 2017-6.2%-7.4%-4.3%
Q2 2017+5.3%+4.5%+0.6%
Q1 2017+1.7%-1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2016-0.3%+1.9%+5.0%
Q3 2016-1.4%-2.4%+5.5%
Q2 2016-0.1%-0.3%+2.6%
Q1 2016+2.7%
Q4 2015+3.9%
Q3 2015+2.7%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014-0.4%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014-2.7%
Q1 2014-2.8%
Q4 2013-4.3%
Q3 2013+0.1%
Q2 2013+0.9%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.9%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q3 2011+1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2010-2.5%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q3 2009-2.3%
Q3 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009-0.6%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009-0.6%

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