NYSE$VST
Vistra Corp · Q1 2021 earnings
Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Vistra updated financial impact of Winter Storm Uri and reissued 2021 guidance.
Vistra announced the financial impact of Winter Storm Uri on 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth (FCFbG) is estimated at ~$(1,600) million, including self-help initiatives. The company reissued its 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges at $1,475 to $1,875 million and $200 to $600 million, respectively.
- Financial impact of Winter Storm Uri on 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth (FCFbG) is estimated at ~$(1,600) million, including self-help initiatives.
- 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges were reissued at $1,475 to $1,875 million and $200 to $600 million, respectively.
- An update on the company's 2021 capital allocation plan was provided.
- An investor update call was hosted in lieu of its regularly scheduled quarterly earnings conference call.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly
$3.21B
Revenue by segment
Vistra · $1.5B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023
- Texas$950M+8.8%63.3%
- East$315M+128.3%21.0%
- Retail$173M+8750.0%11.5%
- West$87M+93.3%5.8%
- Asset Closure-$24M—-1.6%
Forward guidance
Vistra reissued its 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges at $1,475 to $1,875 million and $200 to $600 million, respectively. The sole change to Vistra’s 2021 guidance ranges as compared to its initial guidance is the estimated net ~$(1,600) million Adjusted EBITDA impact of Uri, which includes Vistra’s identified self-help initiatives.
Tailwinds
- Vistra positioned itself to handle the unprecedented Winter Storm Uri in Texas and executed well in the areas that we could control.
- Vistra has a strong core to build from and have faith in our business model and strategic direction.
- Vistra is implementing a number of measures to mitigate the risks we observed from the winter storm event.
- Vistra is confident in the company’s ability to bounce back in 2021.
- Vistra is confident to get back on track with our transformation, the execution of our long-term capital allocation plan, and creating value for our stakeholders over the long-term.
Headwinds
- The storm led to a confluence of unpredictable events and substantially altered the company’s risk profile, driven by issues with the integrated gas and electric systems, principally impaired gas deliverability, that we had never before seen.
- Vistra is obviously very disappointed with the financial loss as a result of the effects of Uri.
- The results do not reflect our performance.
- Vistra understands the reality in front of us and are prepared to move the company forward.
- Given the reduction in the amount of available capital in 2021 as a result of the financial impact from Uri, Vistra does not currently plan to repurchase any additional shares in 2021.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021
+0.3%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.3%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.0%
Avg return
30 days after
50%
19 / 38 earnings
Positive
+14.0%
Q1 2024
Best reaction
-23.5%
Q4 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -2.2% | -7.3% | -6.0% | |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9% | -7.8% | -11.3% | |
| Q3 2025 | -2.6% | -5.4% | -11.7% | |
| Q2 2025 | +2.4% | +4.3% | -6.4% | |
| Q1 2025 | -3.7% | +0.9% | +19.9% | |
| Q4 2024 | -12.3% | -14.3% | -19.7% | |
| Q3 2024 | +12.5% | +12.7% | +26.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +6.3% | +8.8% | -0.3% | |
| Q1 2024 | +14.0% | +10.3% | +4.1% | |
| Q4 2023 | +7.0% | +11.8% | +36.6% | |
| Q3 2023 | -1.9% | -2.4% | +5.2% | |
| Q2 2023 | +6.5% | +5.2% | +18.2% | |
| Q1 2023 | +7.9% | +4.9% | +6.2% | |
| Q4 2022 | -3.2% | +10.9% | +9.1% | |
| Q3 2022 | +2.6% | +1.4% | +3.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.5% | -1.8% | -2.6% | |
| Q1 2022 | -5.0% | -4.4% | +1.7% | |
| Q4 2021 | +5.3% | +2.5% | +4.9% | |
| Q3 2021 | +2.8% | +1.2% | +7.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | -1.9% | -2.2% | +1.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | -3.7% | -3.5% | -7.2% | |
| Q4 2020 | -23.5% | -27.8% | -25.9% | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.5% | +2.8% | +4.1% | |
| Q2 2020 | +0.4% | +2.3% | -2.8% | |
| Q1 2020 | -3.9% | -0.4% | +6.9% | |
| Q4 2019 | -2.2% | +2.2% | -20.4% | |
| Q3 2019 | -5.9% | -5.0% | -10.7% | |
| Q2 2019 | +0.8% | +2.4% | +15.8% | |
| Q1 2019 | -3.4% | -7.6% | -13.5% | |
| Q4 2018 | +1.5% | -2.6% | -0.5% | |
| Q3 2018 | +8.1% | +7.0% | +1.6% | |
| Q2 2018 | +3.8% | +0.7% | +1.6% | |
| Q1 2018 | +2.9% | -0.6% | +5.2% | |
| Q4 2017 | -0.2% | +3.0% | +11.1% | |
| Q3 2017 | +1.3% | -1.3% | -2.0% | |
| Q2 2017 | +5.2% | +5.5% | +10.3% | |
| Q1 2017 | -0.3% | -0.6% | +10.7% | |
| Q4 2016 | -0.9% | +4.5% | +5.2% | |
| Q3 2016 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2016 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2016 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | — | — | — |
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