NYSE$VST

Vistra Corp · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vistra reported Q4 2020 results above top end of raised guidance range and estimated one-time impact of Winter Storm Uri.

Vistra reported a net loss of $27 million for Q4 2020, with an adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of $802 million. The company's retail segment saw strong performance, driven by margin performance in ERCOT and the addition of Ambit. However, the winter storm Uri is expected to have a material adverse impact on future financial results.

  • Vistra delivered 2020 Net Income of $624 million and Net Income from Ongoing Operations of $725 million.
  • 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $3,766 million, ~11% above 2019 results.
  • Vistra realized $400 million in EBITDA value levers from the Operations Performance Improvement (“OPI”) initiative in 2020.
  • As of Dec. 31, 2020, Vistra had total available liquidity of ~$2,399 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $406 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.52B

Previous: $2.86B-11.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.05

Previous: $0.48-110.4%
Ongoing Operations Net Income

-$14M

Previous: $240M-105.8%
Capital Expenditures

$421M

Previous: $172M+144.8%
Free Cash Flow

$566M

Previous: $741M-23.6%
Net Income

-$27M

Previous: $233M-111.6%
Operating Income

$1.52B

Previous: $1.99B-23.8%
Gross Profit

$809M

Previous: $1.03B-21.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$406M

Previous: $300M+35.3%
Total Assets

$25.2B

Previous: $26.6B-5.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$19M

Previous: $12M+58.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.52B

Q4 2020-11.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 5 of 16 quarters(31%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vistra · $771M total across 5 segments · Q4 2020

  • Retail
    $411M+19.8%
  • Texas
    $191M
  • East
    $158M
  • West
    $14M
  • Asset Closure
    -$3M+25.0%

Forward guidance

Due to Winter Storm Uri, Vistra is unable to reaffirm or adjust its 2021 guidance, as there is not yet enough information to provide an exact estimate of the one-time financial impact. Preliminary estimates indicate a one-time adverse impact in the range of ~$900 million to $1,300 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

19 / 38 earnings

Positive

+14.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-23.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%-7.3%-6.0%
Q4 2025-0.9%-7.8%-11.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-5.4%-11.7%
Q2 2025+2.4%+4.3%-6.4%
Q1 2025-3.7%+0.9%+19.9%
Q4 2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.7%
Q3 2024+12.5%+12.7%+26.9%
Q2 2024+6.3%+8.8%-0.3%
Q1 2024+14.0%+10.3%+4.1%
Q4 2023+7.0%+11.8%+36.6%
Q3 2023-1.9%-2.4%+5.2%
Q2 2023+6.5%+5.2%+18.2%
Q1 2023+7.9%+4.9%+6.2%
Q4 2022-3.2%+10.9%+9.1%
Q3 2022+2.6%+1.4%+3.3%
Q2 2022-3.5%-1.8%-2.6%
Q1 2022-5.0%-4.4%+1.7%
Q4 2021+5.3%+2.5%+4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%+1.2%+7.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-2.2%+1.1%
Q1 2021-3.7%-3.5%-7.2%
Q4 2020-23.5%-27.8%-25.9%
Q3 2020+0.5%+2.8%+4.1%
Q2 2020+0.4%+2.3%-2.8%
Q1 2020-3.9%-0.4%+6.9%
Q4 2019-2.2%+2.2%-20.4%
Q3 2019-5.9%-5.0%-10.7%
Q2 2019+0.8%+2.4%+15.8%
Q1 2019-3.4%-7.6%-13.5%
Q4 2018+1.5%-2.6%-0.5%
Q3 2018+8.1%+7.0%+1.6%
Q2 2018+3.8%+0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+2.9%-0.6%+5.2%
Q4 2017-0.2%+3.0%+11.1%
Q3 2017+1.3%-1.3%-2.0%
Q2 2017+5.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.6%+10.7%
Q4 2016-0.9%+4.5%+5.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro