NYSE$VST

Vistra Corp · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vistra reported solid results driven by strong generation performance and strategic hedging.

Vistra reported a net income of $678 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,038 million for the third quarter of 2022. The company's generation fleet performed well during the summer, and the retail business demonstrated resilience. Vistra initiated 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance with a midpoint of $3,700 million.

  • Vistra recorded third quarter 2022 Net Income of $678 million and Net Income from Ongoing Operations of $667 million.
  • The company delivered third quarter 2022 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,038 million.
  • Vistra narrowed 2022 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $2,960 million to $3,160 million.
  • The company initiated 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges of $3,400 million to $4,000 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.15B

Previous: $2.99B+72.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.51

Previous: $0.01+15000.0%
Ongoing Operations Net Income

$667M

Previous: $16M+4068.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$909M

Previous: -$790M-15.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$241M

Previous: -$783M+69.2%
Net Income

$668M

Previous: $7M+9442.9%
Operating Income

$894M

Previous: $119M+651.3%
Gross Profit

$5.15B

Previous: $2.99B+72.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$535M

Previous: $351M+52.4%
Total Assets

$35.2B

Previous: $29.9B+17.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$14M

Previous: $11M+27.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.15B

Q3 2022+72%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 5 of 14 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vistra · $1.05B total across 4 segments · Q3 2022

  • Texas
    $873M+1.7%
  • East
    $138M-28.5%
  • West
    $45M+25.0%
  • Retail
    -$2M-103.1%

Forward guidance

Vistra initiated its 2023 guidance ranges, forecasting Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $3,400 million to $4,000 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $1,750 million to $2,350 million.

Tailwinds

  • 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint is $3,700 million.
  • 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG midpoint is $2,050 million.
  • As of Sept. 30, 2022, Vistra has hedged approximately 70% of its expected generation volumes on average for the three-year period 2023 to 2025, with 2023 hedged at approximately 90%.
  • Vistra's hedging program supports our 2023 guidance ranges.
  • Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA mid-point opportunities in the range of $3,500 million to $3,700 million in 2024 and 2025.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

19 / 38 earnings

Positive

+14.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-23.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%-7.3%-6.0%
Q4 2025-0.9%-7.8%-11.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-5.4%-11.7%
Q2 2025+2.4%+4.3%-6.4%
Q1 2025-3.7%+0.9%+19.9%
Q4 2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.7%
Q3 2024+12.5%+12.7%+26.9%
Q2 2024+6.3%+8.8%-0.3%
Q1 2024+14.0%+10.3%+4.1%
Q4 2023+7.0%+11.8%+36.6%
Q3 2023-1.9%-2.4%+5.2%
Q2 2023+6.5%+5.2%+18.2%
Q1 2023+7.9%+4.9%+6.2%
Q4 2022-3.2%+10.9%+9.1%
Q3 2022+2.6%+1.4%+3.3%
Q2 2022-3.5%-1.8%-2.6%
Q1 2022-5.0%-4.4%+1.7%
Q4 2021+5.3%+2.5%+4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%+1.2%+7.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-2.2%+1.1%
Q1 2021-3.7%-3.5%-7.2%
Q4 2020-23.5%-27.8%-25.9%
Q3 2020+0.5%+2.8%+4.1%
Q2 2020+0.4%+2.3%-2.8%
Q1 2020-3.9%-0.4%+6.9%
Q4 2019-2.2%+2.2%-20.4%
Q3 2019-5.9%-5.0%-10.7%
Q2 2019+0.8%+2.4%+15.8%
Q1 2019-3.4%-7.6%-13.5%
Q4 2018+1.5%-2.6%-0.5%
Q3 2018+8.1%+7.0%+1.6%
Q2 2018+3.8%+0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+2.9%-0.6%+5.2%
Q4 2017-0.2%+3.0%+11.1%
Q3 2017+1.3%-1.3%-2.0%
Q2 2017+5.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.6%+10.7%
Q4 2016-0.9%+4.5%+5.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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