NYSE$VST

Vistra Corp · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Vistra Q4 2024 Earnings Report

Vistra delivered strong Q4 2024 results, reporting significant year-over-year growth in net income and adjusted EBITDA. The company benefited from the Energy Harbor acquisition and increased revenues from nuclear production tax credits.

  • Net income of $490 million, compared to a loss of $184 million in Q4 2023.
  • Revenue grew 21.82% YoY, reaching $4.431 billion.
  • Ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA more than doubled YoY to $1.985 billion.
  • Strong liquidity position with $1.188 billion in cash and equivalents.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.43B

Previous: $3.08B+44.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.45

Previous: -$0.55+363.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$1.99B

No prior period
Ongoing Operations Net Income

$542M

Previous: $1.5B-63.8%
Net Income

$490M

Previous: $1.49B-67.2%
Operating Income

$1.04B

Previous: $2.66B-61.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.43B

Q4 2024+44%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 5 of 14 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vistra · $1.5B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Texas
    $950M+8.8%
  • East
    $315M+128.3%
  • Retail
    $173M+8750.0%
  • West
    $87M+93.3%
  • Asset Closure
    -$24M

Forward guidance

Vistra reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, expecting strong financial performance supported by its comprehensive hedging program and clean energy investments.

Tailwinds

  • 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion.
  • 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.6 billion.
  • 100% of expected 2025 generation volumes hedged.
  • Expansion in clean energy investments, including solar and nuclear.
  • Continued cost efficiencies and operational improvements.

Headwinds

  • Potential volatility in power markets could impact earnings.
  • Regulatory risks related to clean energy expansion.
  • High debt levels despite strong liquidity.
  • Integration risks from the Energy Harbor acquisition.
  • Uncertainty in long-term power demand trends.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

19 / 38 earnings

Positive

+14.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-23.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%-7.3%-6.0%
Q4 2025-0.9%-7.8%-11.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-5.4%-11.7%
Q2 2025+2.4%+4.3%-6.4%
Q1 2025-3.7%+0.9%+19.9%
Q4 2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.7%
Q3 2024+12.5%+12.7%+26.9%
Q2 2024+6.3%+8.8%-0.3%
Q1 2024+14.0%+10.3%+4.1%
Q4 2023+7.0%+11.8%+36.6%
Q3 2023-1.9%-2.4%+5.2%
Q2 2023+6.5%+5.2%+18.2%
Q1 2023+7.9%+4.9%+6.2%
Q4 2022-3.2%+10.9%+9.1%
Q3 2022+2.6%+1.4%+3.3%
Q2 2022-3.5%-1.8%-2.6%
Q1 2022-5.0%-4.4%+1.7%
Q4 2021+5.3%+2.5%+4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%+1.2%+7.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-2.2%+1.1%
Q1 2021-3.7%-3.5%-7.2%
Q4 2020-23.5%-27.8%-25.9%
Q3 2020+0.5%+2.8%+4.1%
Q2 2020+0.4%+2.3%-2.8%
Q1 2020-3.9%-0.4%+6.9%
Q4 2019-2.2%+2.2%-20.4%
Q3 2019-5.9%-5.0%-10.7%
Q2 2019+0.8%+2.4%+15.8%
Q1 2019-3.4%-7.6%-13.5%
Q4 2018+1.5%-2.6%-0.5%
Q3 2018+8.1%+7.0%+1.6%
Q2 2018+3.8%+0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+2.9%-0.6%+5.2%
Q4 2017-0.2%+3.0%+11.1%
Q3 2017+1.3%-1.3%-2.0%
Q2 2017+5.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.6%+10.7%
Q4 2016-0.9%+4.5%+5.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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