NYSE$VST

Vistra Corp · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vistra reported full-year results for 2023 and announced the expected closing of the Energy Harbor transaction.

Vistra Corp. reported a strong full-year performance for 2023, with GAAP Net Income of $1,492 million and Cash Flow from Operations of $5,453 million. The company also announced the approval of the Energy Harbor acquisition, expected to close on March 1, 2024, and authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases.

  • GAAP full-year 2023 Net Income was $1,492 million and Cash Flow from Operations was $5,453 million.
  • Net Income from Ongoing Operations was $1,498 million, and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $4,140 million.
  • The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the Energy Harbor Corp. acquisition, expected to close on March 1, 2024.
  • Approximately 98% of the outstanding beneficial interests in the Tax Receivable Agreement were repurchased, increasing expected free cash flow and simplifying the capital structure.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.08B

Previous: $3.87B-20.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.55

Previous: -$0.62+11.3%
Ongoing Operations Net Income

$1.5B

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$1.21B

Previous: $392M-408.2%
Net Income

$1.49B

Previous: -$248M+701.6%
Operating Income

$2.66B

Previous: -$103M+2683.5%
Gross Profit

$457M

Previous: $653M-30.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$14M

Previous: $15M-6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.08B

Q4 2023-20.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 14 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vistra · $1.5B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Texas
    $950M+8.8%
  • East
    $315M+128.3%
  • Retail
    $173M+8750.0%
  • West
    $87M+93.3%
  • Asset Closure
    -$24M

Forward guidance

Vistra reaffirmed its 2024 standalone guidance ranges for Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG. The company has hedged approximately 99% of its expected generation volumes for the balance of 2024 and approximately 87% for 2025.

Tailwinds

  • Standalone 2024 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Guidance range is meaningfully higher than the range of midpoint opportunities the company had estimated in its earnings presentations in 2022 and the first half of 2023.
  • As of Feb. 23, 2024, Vistra has hedged approximately 99% of its expected generation volumes for the balance of 2024.
  • As of Feb. 23, 2024, Vistra has hedged approximately 87% for 2025.
  • Vistra’s comprehensive hedging program, as well as forward price curves as of Feb. 23, 2024, support the company’s 2024 standalone guidance ranges.
  • Vistra is anticipating the 2025 midpoint opportunity to be in the range of $3,800 million to $4,000 million for Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA (exclusive of any future EBITDA contribution from Energy Harbor).

Headwinds

  • Guidance excludes any potential contributions from Energy Harbor’s performance.
  • Adverse changes in general economic or market conditions (including changes in interest rates) or changes in political conditions or federal or state laws and regulations.
  • The ability of Vistra to execute upon its contemplated strategic, capital allocation, performance, and cost-saving initiatives, including the acquisition of Energy Harbor, and to successfully integrate acquired businesses.
  • Actions by credit ratings agencies.
  • The severity, magnitude and duration of extreme weather events, contingencies and uncertainties relating thereto, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control, and the resulting effects on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

19 / 38 earnings

Positive

+14.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-23.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%-7.3%-6.0%
Q4 2025-0.9%-7.8%-11.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-5.4%-11.7%
Q2 2025+2.4%+4.3%-6.4%
Q1 2025-3.7%+0.9%+19.9%
Q4 2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.7%
Q3 2024+12.5%+12.7%+26.9%
Q2 2024+6.3%+8.8%-0.3%
Q1 2024+14.0%+10.3%+4.1%
Q4 2023+7.0%+11.8%+36.6%
Q3 2023-1.9%-2.4%+5.2%
Q2 2023+6.5%+5.2%+18.2%
Q1 2023+7.9%+4.9%+6.2%
Q4 2022-3.2%+10.9%+9.1%
Q3 2022+2.6%+1.4%+3.3%
Q2 2022-3.5%-1.8%-2.6%
Q1 2022-5.0%-4.4%+1.7%
Q4 2021+5.3%+2.5%+4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%+1.2%+7.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-2.2%+1.1%
Q1 2021-3.7%-3.5%-7.2%
Q4 2020-23.5%-27.8%-25.9%
Q3 2020+0.5%+2.8%+4.1%
Q2 2020+0.4%+2.3%-2.8%
Q1 2020-3.9%-0.4%+6.9%
Q4 2019-2.2%+2.2%-20.4%
Q3 2019-5.9%-5.0%-10.7%
Q2 2019+0.8%+2.4%+15.8%
Q1 2019-3.4%-7.6%-13.5%
Q4 2018+1.5%-2.6%-0.5%
Q3 2018+8.1%+7.0%+1.6%
Q2 2018+3.8%+0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+2.9%-0.6%+5.2%
Q4 2017-0.2%+3.0%+11.1%
Q3 2017+1.3%-1.3%-2.0%
Q2 2017+5.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.6%+10.7%
Q4 2016-0.9%+4.5%+5.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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