NYSE$VST

Vistra Corp · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vistra exceeded guidance midpoint for the fourth consecutive year and reaffirmed 2020 guidance.

Vistra Energy reported strong 2019 results, exceeding guidance midpoint for the fourth consecutive year. The company delivered Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $3,393 million and Net Income from Ongoing Operations of $1,035 million. Vistra is focused on further strengthening the balance sheet and providing long-term capital allocation clarity later in the year.

  • Delivered 2019 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $3,393 million and Net Income from Ongoing Operations of $1,035 million.
  • Delivered 2019 Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth of $2,437 million.
  • Reaffirmed 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges of $3.285 to $3.585 billion and $2.16 to $2.46 billion, respectively.
  • Achieved $565 million of the projected $715 million of Dynegy merger synergy and Operations Performance Initiative EBITDA value lever targets by year-end 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.86B

Previous: $2.58B+10.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.48

Previous: -$0.32+250.0%
Ongoing Operations Net Income

$240M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$172M

Previous: $169M+1.8%
Free Cash Flow

$741M

Previous: $439M+68.8%
Net Income

$233M

Previous: -$186M+225.3%
Operating Income

$1.99B

Previous: $6M+33116.7%
Gross Profit

$1.03B

Previous: $648M+58.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$300M

Previous: $636M-52.8%
Total Assets

$26.6B

Previous: $26B+2.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $14M-14.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.86B

Q4 2019+10.7%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vistra · $1.5B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Texas
    $950M+8.8%
  • East
    $315M+128.3%
  • Retail
    $173M+8750.0%
  • West
    $87M+93.3%
  • Asset Closure
    -$24M

Forward guidance

Vistra is reaffirming its 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges of $3,285 to $3,585 million and $2,160 to $2,460 million, respectively.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

19 / 38 earnings

Positive

+14.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-23.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%-7.3%-6.0%
Q4 2025-0.9%-7.8%-11.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-5.4%-11.7%
Q2 2025+2.4%+4.3%-6.4%
Q1 2025-3.7%+0.9%+19.9%
Q4 2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.7%
Q3 2024+12.5%+12.7%+26.9%
Q2 2024+6.3%+8.8%-0.3%
Q1 2024+14.0%+10.3%+4.1%
Q4 2023+7.0%+11.8%+36.6%
Q3 2023-1.9%-2.4%+5.2%
Q2 2023+6.5%+5.2%+18.2%
Q1 2023+7.9%+4.9%+6.2%
Q4 2022-3.2%+10.9%+9.1%
Q3 2022+2.6%+1.4%+3.3%
Q2 2022-3.5%-1.8%-2.6%
Q1 2022-5.0%-4.4%+1.7%
Q4 2021+5.3%+2.5%+4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%+1.2%+7.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-2.2%+1.1%
Q1 2021-3.7%-3.5%-7.2%
Q4 2020-23.5%-27.8%-25.9%
Q3 2020+0.5%+2.8%+4.1%
Q2 2020+0.4%+2.3%-2.8%
Q1 2020-3.9%-0.4%+6.9%
Q4 2019-2.2%+2.2%-20.4%
Q3 2019-5.9%-5.0%-10.7%
Q2 2019+0.8%+2.4%+15.8%
Q1 2019-3.4%-7.6%-13.5%
Q4 2018+1.5%-2.6%-0.5%
Q3 2018+8.1%+7.0%+1.6%
Q2 2018+3.8%+0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+2.9%-0.6%+5.2%
Q4 2017-0.2%+3.0%+11.1%
Q3 2017+1.3%-1.3%-2.0%
Q2 2017+5.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.6%+10.7%
Q4 2016-0.9%+4.5%+5.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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