NYSE$VST

Vistra Corp · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter results above expectations and reaffirmed 2020 and 2021 guidance.

Vistra reported a net income of $442 million and an Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,185 million for the third quarter of 2020, exceeding expectations. The company reaffirmed its 2020 and 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance ranges.

  • Delivered third quarter 2020 Net Income of $442 million and Net Income from Ongoing Operations of $502 million.
  • Third quarter 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $1,185 million—results above expectations for the quarter.
  • Reaffirmed 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance ranges, as raised and narrowed on Sept. 29, of $3,485 to $3,685 million and $2,375 to $2,575 million, respectively.
  • Reaffirmed 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges, initiated on Sept. 29, of $3,075 to $3,475 million and $1,765 to $2,165 million, respectively.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.55B

Previous: $3.19B+11.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.03

Previous: $0.25+312.0%
Ongoing Operations Net Income

$502M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$838M

Previous: -$348M-140.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$395M

Previous: -$235M-68.1%
Net Income

$443M

Previous: $113M+292.0%
Operating Income

$676M

Previous: $440M+53.6%
Gross Profit

$3.55B

Previous: $3.19B+11.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$500M

Previous: $707M-29.3%
Total Assets

$25.5B

Previous: $26.4B-3.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$16M

Previous: $11M+45.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Vistra · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.55B

Q3 2020+11.2%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vistra · $1.08B total across 5 segments · Q3 2020

  • Texas
    $1B
  • East
    $245M
  • West
    $23M
  • Asset Closure
    -$48M
  • Retail
    -$140M

Forward guidance

Vistra is reaffirming both its 2020 and 2021 Ongoing Operations guidance ranges, forecasting 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $3,485 to $3,685 million, 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $2,375 to $2,575 million, 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $3,075 to $3,475 million, and 2021 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $1,765 to $2,165 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

19 / 38 earnings

Positive

+14.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-23.5%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%-7.3%-6.0%
Q4 2025-0.9%-7.8%-11.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-5.4%-11.7%
Q2 2025+2.4%+4.3%-6.4%
Q1 2025-3.7%+0.9%+19.9%
Q4 2024-12.3%-14.3%-19.7%
Q3 2024+12.5%+12.7%+26.9%
Q2 2024+6.3%+8.8%-0.3%
Q1 2024+14.0%+10.3%+4.1%
Q4 2023+7.0%+11.8%+36.6%
Q3 2023-1.9%-2.4%+5.2%
Q2 2023+6.5%+5.2%+18.2%
Q1 2023+7.9%+4.9%+6.2%
Q4 2022-3.2%+10.9%+9.1%
Q3 2022+2.6%+1.4%+3.3%
Q2 2022-3.5%-1.8%-2.6%
Q1 2022-5.0%-4.4%+1.7%
Q4 2021+5.3%+2.5%+4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%+1.2%+7.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-2.2%+1.1%
Q1 2021-3.7%-3.5%-7.2%
Q4 2020-23.5%-27.8%-25.9%
Q3 2020+0.5%+2.8%+4.1%
Q2 2020+0.4%+2.3%-2.8%
Q1 2020-3.9%-0.4%+6.9%
Q4 2019-2.2%+2.2%-20.4%
Q3 2019-5.9%-5.0%-10.7%
Q2 2019+0.8%+2.4%+15.8%
Q1 2019-3.4%-7.6%-13.5%
Q4 2018+1.5%-2.6%-0.5%
Q3 2018+8.1%+7.0%+1.6%
Q2 2018+3.8%+0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+2.9%-0.6%+5.2%
Q4 2017-0.2%+3.0%+11.1%
Q3 2017+1.3%-1.3%-2.0%
Q2 2017+5.2%+5.5%+10.3%
Q1 2017-0.3%-0.6%+10.7%
Q4 2016-0.9%+4.5%+5.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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