NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries reported solid financial performance in Q4 2024, driven by stable sales and cost efficiency measures.

CF Industries posted net earnings of $328 million and revenue of $1.52 billion in Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $562 million. Despite lower selling prices, the company maintained strong margins through cost management and operational efficiencies.

  • Net earnings of $328 million, or $1.89 per diluted share.
  • Revenue of $1.52 billion, slightly lower than Q4 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $562 million, reflecting stable profitability.
  • Higher ammonia sales volume offset lower UAN and AN sales.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.52B

Previous: $1.57B-3.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.89

Previous: $1.44+31.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$562M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$197M

No prior period
Ammonia Production Volume (000s tons)

2.6M

No prior period
Granular Urea Production Volume (000s tons)

1.0M

No prior period
UAN Production Volume (000s tons)

1.8M

No prior period
AN Production Volume (000s tons)

354.0K

No prior period
Net Income

$328M

Previous: $274M+19.7%
Operating Income

$441M

Previous: $352M+25.3%
Gross Profit

$524M

Previous: $501M+4.6%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.52B

Q4 2024-3%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Ammonia Segment
    $1.12B+67.7%
  • UAN Segment
    $976M+46.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $833M+0.1%
  • AN Segment
    $253M+5.0%
  • Other Segment
    $212M-8.6%

Forward guidance

CF Industries anticipates stable nitrogen demand, supported by strong agricultural fundamentals and constrained global supply. Management projects ammonia production to reach 10 million tons in 2025.

Tailwinds

  • Projected ammonia production of 10 million tons in 2025.
  • Strong nitrogen demand expected due to global agricultural trends.
  • Cost-advantaged North American production remains a competitive edge.
  • Operational improvements enhancing efficiency and profitability.
  • Stable corn prices driving demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers.

Headwinds

  • Lower global energy costs continue to pressure selling prices.
  • Uncertainty around Chinese urea export policies.
  • Potential volatility in natural gas prices impacting margins.
  • European ammonia production curtailments may create market imbalances.
  • Geopolitical risks affecting global fertilizer trade.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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