NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries' financial performance remained strong, demonstrating resilience through efficient operations and strategic capital management.

CF Industries reported net earnings of $68 million for the first quarter of 2020, with an adjusted EBITDA of $318 million. The company focused on maintaining safe and efficient operations while navigating a commercial environment marked by lower average selling prices.

  • Net earnings for the first quarter were $68 million, or $0.31 per diluted share.
  • EBITDA reached $314 million and adjusted EBITDA was $318 million.
  • The company achieved its lowest recordable incident rate, highlighting safe operations.
  • Approximately 2.6 million shares were repurchased for $100 million during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$971M

Previous: $1B-3.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.31

Previous: $0.40-22.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$67M

Previous: -$80M+16.3%
Free Cash Flow

$24M

Previous: $38M-36.8%
Net Income

$91M

Previous: $118M-22.9%
Operating Income

$147M

Previous: $165M-10.9%
Gross Profit

$204M

Previous: $220M-7.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$53M

Previous: $671M-92.1%
Total Assets

$12.4B

Previous: $12.9B-3.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$7M

Previous: $6M+16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$971M

Q1 2020-3%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Ammonia Segment
    $1.12B+67.7%
  • UAN Segment
    $976M+46.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $833M+0.1%
  • AN Segment
    $253M+5.0%
  • Other Segment
    $212M-8.6%

Forward guidance

CF Industries anticipates positive near-term global nitrogen demand driven by increased planted corn and coarse grains in 2020. The company expects North American nitrogen production to remain at the low-end of the global cost curve due to access to low-cost natural gas.

Tailwinds

  • Favorable planting conditions in the U.S.
  • Farm-level income support.
  • Strongest April movement of ammonia for spring fertilizer application since April 2015.
  • Expected higher demand for urea in Brazil in 2020.
  • North American nitrogen production expected to remain at the low-end of the global cost curve.

Headwinds

  • COVID-19 impact on nitrogen demand for industrial applications.
  • Uncertainty regarding factors influencing farmers’ planting decisions in 2021.
  • Potential delays in new nitrogen capacity projects due to labor and equipment issues.
  • Possible less favorable growing conditions in India affecting urea tender volumes.
  • Announced outages include nitrogen facilities in India and France

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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