NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net earnings of $705 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.26 billion.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported strong Q4 2021 results, with net earnings of $705 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.26 billion, driven by strong global nitrogen demand and favorable energy spreads. The company repurchased approximately 7.5 million shares for $490 million during the fourth quarter, effectively completing the $1 billion share repurchase authorization that expired December 31, 2021.

  • Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $705 million, or $3.27 per diluted share.
  • EBITDA was $1.19 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $1.26 billion.
  • Net sales were $2.5 billion compared to $1.1 billion in 2020.
  • The company repurchased approximately 7.5 million shares for $490 million during the fourth quarter of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.54B

Previous: $1.1B+130.5%
EPS (adj)

$3.27

Previous: $0.40+717.5%
Capital Expenditures

$132M

Previous: $103M+28.2%
Free Cash Flow

$2.17B

Previous: $748M+189.4%
Net Income

$859M

Previous: $87M+887.4%
Operating Income

$1.13B

Previous: $156M+623.7%
Gross Profit

$1.16B

Previous: $180M+541.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.63B

Previous: $683M+138.4%
Total Assets

$12.4B

Previous: $12B+2.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$7M

Previous: $5M+40.0%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.54B

Q4 2021+130.5%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $2.54B total across 5 segments · Q4 2021

  • Ammonia Segment
    $778M+161.1%
  • UAN Segment
    $732M+169.1%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $662M+98.8%
  • Other Segment
    $217M+149.4%
  • AN Segment
    $151M+34.8%

Forward guidance

Management expects gross ammonia production for 2022 will return to historical levels (9.5 to 10.0 million tons) based on normal operating conditions and a return to a typical level of planned maintenance activities. Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2022 will be in a range of $500-$550 million, which includes capital expenditures at the Company’s Donaldsonville, LA, Complex related to green and blue ammonia projects.

Tailwinds

  • Global nitrogen supply and demand balance to remain tight for the foreseeable future
  • Commercial environment to be highly favorable for producers in low-cost regions
  • The need to replenish global grains stocks continues to support high front month and forward prices for nitrogen-consuming crops
  • Increased economic activity continues to drive strong demand for diesel exhaust fluid for emissions abatement as well as ammonia, urea and nitric acid for industrial uses
  • Energy differentials between Europe and Asia versus low cost regions remain significant, steepening the global nitrogen cost curve and increasing margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers

Headwinds

  • High energy prices in Europe and Asia
  • Ongoing restrictions on exports of certain nitrogen products from Russia, Egypt, Turkey and China
  • Urea exports from China are expected to be limited through at least the first half of 2022
  • Drought conditions in Southern Brazil and Argentina, which has reduced production forecasts for the current first crop corn
  • Forward curves for natural gas in Europe remain above historical norms, challenging producer profitability and likely resulting in continued lower operating rates in the region

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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