NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries reported strong execution and favorable U.S. planting conditions that drove record sales volumes, with positive global demand supporting an improved 2021 nitrogen outlook.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported first half 2020 net earnings of $258 million and EBITDA of $786 million. The company achieved record first half total sales volumes, exceeding 10 million product tons for the first time.

  • First half net earnings of $258 million, or $1.20 per diluted share; EBITDA of $786 million; adjusted EBITDA of $808 million
  • Second quarter net earnings of $190 million, or $0.89 per diluted share; EBITDA of $472 million; adjusted EBITDA of $490 million
  • Trailing twelve month net cash from operating activities of $1,530 million, free cash flow of $973 million
  • Company record first half total sales volumes, exceeding 10 million product tons for first time

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.2B

Previous: $1.5B-19.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.89

Previous: $1.12-20.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$119M

Previous: -$154M+22.7%
Free Cash Flow

$99M

Previous: $166M-40.4%
Net Income

$218M

Previous: $320M-31.9%
Operating Income

$280M

Previous: $475M-41.1%
Gross Profit

$334M

Previous: $499M-33.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$79M

Previous: $858M-90.8%
Total Assets

$12B

Previous: $12.9B-7.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $11M-45.5%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.2B

Q2 2020-19.8%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $1.2B total across 5 segments · Q2 2020

  • Ammonia Segment
    $364M
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $329M
  • UAN Segment
    $308M
  • AN Segment
    $118M
  • Other Segment
    $85M

Forward guidance

The company expects that the global nitrogen demand outlook will remain positive into 2021. The company continues to project that Chinese anthracite coal-based nitrogen complexes will remain the global marginal urea producer and thus set the global price.

Tailwinds

  • USDA estimates 92 million acres of corn were planted in the U.S. in 2020.
  • Lower-than-expected planted corn acres, the impact of insurance and government support, and strong demand for corn imports in China will support farm incomes in 2020.
  • Bean-to-corn price ratio is supportive of corn plantings in 2021, CF expects U.S. planted corn acres in 2021 to be in line with levels of the last ten years.
  • Favorable weather in India has driven strong urea consumption, with urea sales in India increasing by approximately 50 percent from April through July 2020 compared to the prior year according to government statistics.
  • Demand for urea imports into Brazil has also been positive, supported by improved farm incomes and no active domestic production.

Headwinds

  • Low global energy prices have contributed to global nitrogen supply length as some higher-cost producers have been able to operate due to production cost deflation.
  • Low global nitrogen prices have contributed to the shutdown of three ammonia plants in Trinidad.
  • The price of Chinese anthracite coal has not declined substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to global natural gas prices.
  • Chinese urea prices had fallen only modestly, and participation in India urea tenders has been below prior year levels.
  • The company expects gross ammonia production during the second half of 2020 to be lower than in the first half due to scheduled maintenance and turnaround activity.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro