NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries reported strong Q3 2022 results driven by strong operational performance and wide energy spreads.

CF Industries reported net sales of $2.321 billion and net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $438 million, or $2.18 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was $983 million for the quarter. The company is collaborating with ExxonMobil on a carbon capture project and authorized a new $3 billion share repurchase program.

  • Strong operational performance and wide energy spreads drive record results
  • Company to collaborate with ExxonMobil on landmark carbon capture project
  • New $3 billion share repurchase program authorized by the Board through 2025
  • Average selling prices for 9M 2022 were higher than 9M 2021 due to decreased global supply availability

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.32B

Previous: $1.36B+70.4%
EPS (adj)

$2.29

Previous: $1.02+124.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$319M

Previous: -$382M+16.5%
Free Cash Flow

$219M

Previous: -$473M+146.3%
Net Income

$538M

Previous: -$91M+691.2%
Operating Income

$750M

Previous: -$97M+873.2%
Gross Profit

$916M

Previous: $440M+108.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$157M

Previous: $52M+201.9%
Total Assets

$13.3B

Previous: $11.8B+12.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $7M+42.9%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.32B

Q3 2022+70.4%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Ammonia Segment
    $1.12B+67.7%
  • UAN Segment
    $976M+46.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $833M+0.1%
  • AN Segment
    $253M+5.0%
  • Other Segment
    $212M-8.6%

Forward guidance

Global nitrogen supply/demand balance to remain tight into 2025 due to agriculture - led demand and forward energy curves that point to persistently high energy prices in Europe and Asia.

Tailwinds

  • The need to replenish global grain stocks, which has supported high prices for corn, wheat, canola, continues to drive global nitrogen demand
  • North America: high crop futures prices and healthy farm economics are projected to support high corn and wheat planted acres in 2023
  • India : expected to tender for urea throughout the remainder of the year and into 2023 to fully meet increased demand as farmers maximize grain production
  • Production economics continue to favor importing ammonia to manufacture upgraded products for facilities able to do so

Headwinds

  • Global nitrogen supply availability remains constrained as high energy prices in Europe and Asia caused curtailments of ammonia production; an estimated 60% of European ammonia capacity did not operate in Q3 2022
  • Europe: production curtailments have led to higher nitrogen imports to the region in 2H 2022; urea imports are well - above typical pace in part to replace lower nitrate supply
  • China: urea exports remain low due to government measures to promote domestic availability and affordability;1.5 - 2M metric tons expected for export in 2022
  • Russia : ammonia exports in 2022 lower than prior years due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; other nitrogen products at near - normal levels
  • Forward energy curves suggest production economics in Europe/Asia unlikely to improve in the next two to three years without an increase in nitrogen fertilizer prices

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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