NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries' Q4 2023 earnings decreased due to lower nitrogen prices and higher natural gas costs, but the company progressed on clean energy initiatives and completed the Waggaman ammonia facility acquisition.

CF Industries reported net sales of $1.57 billion and net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $274 million, or $1.44 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $592 million for the quarter. The company progressed on clean energy initiatives and completed the Waggaman ammonia facility acquisition.

  • Net sales were $1.571 billion, compared to $2.608 billion in Q4 2022.
  • Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $274 million, or $1.44 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $592 million.
  • The Waggaman acquisition was completed, and integration into CF Industries’ network is underway.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.57B

Previous: $2.61B-39.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.44

Previous: $4.35-66.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.41B

Previous: $134M-1154.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$933M

Previous: $451M-306.9%
Net Income

$274M

Previous: $860M-68.1%
Operating Income

$352M

Previous: $860M-59.1%
Gross Profit

$501M

Previous: $1.26B-60.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $9M-11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.57B

Q4 2023-39.8%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Ammonia Segment
    $1.12B+67.7%
  • UAN Segment
    $976M+46.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $833M+0.1%
  • AN Segment
    $253M+5.0%
  • Other Segment
    $212M-8.6%

Forward guidance

Management expects industry fundamentals to remain favorable in 2024, with North American corn area planted expected to be 91 million acres. The company anticipates gross ammonia production to be approximately 10 million tons and capital expenditures to be in the range of $550 million.

Tailwinds

  • North America: Corn area planted expected to be 91 million acres
  • India: Urea imports expected to be in a range of 6 – 7 million metric tons
  • Brazil: Urea imports expected to be in a range of 7 – 8 million metric tons
  • Europe: Imports of urea and other nitrogen products expected to remain elevated due to poor production environment
  • China: Urea exports projected to be in the range of 4 million metric tons

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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