NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries achieved strong results in Q4 2022, driven by solid operational performance and favorable energy spreads.

CF Industries reported net sales of $2.608 billion and net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $860 million, or $4.35 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $1.296 billion. The company returned $1.65 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and progressed clean energy initiatives.

  • Net sales reached $2,608 million.
  • Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $860 million, resulting in earnings per diluted share of $4.35.
  • EBITDA amounted to $1,246 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1,296 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.61B

Previous: $2.54B+2.7%
EPS (adj)

$4.35

Previous: $3.27+33.0%
Capital Expenditures

$134M

Previous: $132M+1.5%
Free Cash Flow

$451M

Previous: $2.17B-79.2%
Net Income

$860M

Previous: $859M+0.1%
Operating Income

$860M

Previous: $1.13B-23.8%
Gross Profit

$1.26B

Previous: $1.16B+8.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.32B

Previous: $1.63B+42.7%
Total Assets

$13.3B

Previous: $12.4B+7.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$9M

Previous: $7M+28.6%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.61B

Q4 2022+2.7%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Ammonia Segment
    $1.12B+67.7%
  • UAN Segment
    $976M+46.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $833M+0.1%
  • AN Segment
    $253M+5.0%
  • Other Segment
    $212M-8.6%

Forward guidance

Global nitrogen supply/demand balance to remain tight into 2025 due to agriculture-led demand and forward energy curves that point to challenging production economics for producers in Europe and Asia.

Tailwinds

  • Farm economics are expected to remain positive for 2023, supported by strong crop futures prices and improving yields, assuming a return to normal weather conditions
  • Expected to continue to be one of the world’s largest importers of urea in 2023
  • Management expects demand for urea imports to remain strong in 2023 due to high crop prices, increases in planted acres and improved farm income levels
  • Higher-than-normal levels of nitrogen imports into Europe expected in 2023 due to lower-than-normal ammonia operating rates in the region
  • Forward energy curves continue to suggest that wider differentials between North America and Europe/Asia will persist; supporting significant margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers

Headwinds

  • Global nitrogen supply availability loosened in the fourth quarter due to weak industrial demand in Europe and Asia
  • Delayed purchasing in the agriculture sector
  • A partial recovery of European ammonia operating rates.
  • Urea exports remain low due to government measures to promote domestic availability and affordability; 2-3M metric tons expected for export in 2023, returning to 3-5M metric ton range if government measures loosen
  • Ammonia exports were significantly lower in 2022 compared to prior years due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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