NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries achieved record quarterly financial results driven by robust global nitrogen demand, limited supply, strong operational performance, and expanded logistics.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported first quarter net earnings of $883 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.65 billion. The company benefited from robust global nitrogen demand, limited supply, strong operational performance and expanded logistics.

  • First quarter net earnings of $883 million, EBITDA of $1.68 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.65 billion.
  • Trailing twelve months net cash from operating activities of $3.69 billion, free cash flow of $2.80 billion.
  • North American manufacturing network achieved record first quarter gross ammonia, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) production volumes.
  • Board of Directors increased quarterly dividend by 33 percent to $0.40 per share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.87B

Previous: $1.05B+173.7%
EPS (adj)

$4.21

Previous: $0.70+501.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$63M

Previous: -$71M+11.3%
Free Cash Flow

$988M

Previous: $104M+850.0%
Net Income

$1.05B

Previous: $175M+500.6%
Operating Income

$1.66B

Previous: $247M+571.3%
Gross Profit

$1.7B

Previous: $289M+487.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$207M

Previous: $69M+200.0%
Total Assets

$13.8B

Previous: $12B+14.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $8M+25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.87B

Q1 2022+173.7%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $2.87B total across 5 segments · Q1 2022

  • UAN Segment
    $1.02B+337.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $765M+91.7%
  • Ammonia Segment
    $640M+210.7%
  • Other Segment
    $225M+112.3%
  • AN Segment
    $223M+112.4%

Forward guidance

Management expects global nitrogen industry dynamics to remain strong for the foreseeable future, with robust global nitrogen demand coupled with tight global nitrogen supply and wide energy differentials between North America and marginal production in Europe and Asia.

Tailwinds

  • Global demand for nitrogen remains robust, underpinned by the need to replenish global grains stocks.
  • Low global grains stocks-to-use ratios have driven corn, wheat and other grains futures prices in the U.S. to the highest levels in a decade.
  • These crop prices support high levels of grain planting and incentivize optimal fertilizer application.
  • Global nitrogen inventory remains extremely tight.
  • Energy differentials for Europe and Asia compared to low-cost regions remain significant, steepening the global nitrogen cost curve and increasing margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers.

Headwinds

  • Global supply continues to be limited by curtailments in Europe and Asia due to high energy costs.
  • Ongoing restrictions on exports of certain nitrogen products from Egypt, Turkey and China.
  • Obstacles to nitrogen exports from Russia related to the direct and indirect impact of various sanctions as well as government-imposed export limits.
  • Natural gas prices remain elevated due in part to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the uncertainty about gas flows from Russia.
  • Urea exports from China are expected to be limited through at least the first half of 2022 as the Chinese government has implemented measures to discourage urea exports and promote the availability and affordability of fertilizers domestically.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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