NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries experienced solid results driven by robust nitrogen demand, favorable gas cost and strong operational performance.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported net sales of $1.775 billion and net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $527 million, or $2.70 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $857 million for the quarter.

  • Solid results driven by robust nitrogen demand, favorable gas cost and strong operational performance
  • Returned ~$1.3 billion to shareholders over LTM
  • Advanced our clean energy initiatives - Signed MOU with JERA Co., Inc. for long - term clean ammonia offtake agreement - Signed MOU with LOTTE CHEMICAL Corporation, for long - term clean ammonia supply to South Korea - Progressed blue and green ammonia projects
  • Donaldsonville green ammonia project: electrolyzer installation has begun

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.78B

Previous: $3.39B-47.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.70

Previous: $6.19-56.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$164M

Previous: -$129M-27.1%
Free Cash Flow

$442M

Previous: $1.21B-63.5%
Net Income

$606M

Previous: $1.34B-54.7%
Operating Income

$734M

Previous: $1.78B-58.7%
Gross Profit

$804M

Previous: $1.99B-59.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$183M

Previous: $210M-12.9%
Total Assets

$13.5B

Previous: $13.4B+0.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$7M

Previous: $12M-41.7%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.78B

Q2 2023-47.6%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022

  • Ammonia Segment
    $1.12B+67.7%
  • UAN Segment
    $976M+46.5%
  • Granular Urea Segment
    $833M+0.1%
  • AN Segment
    $253M+5.0%
  • Other Segment
    $212M-8.6%

Forward guidance

Global nitrogen market expected to remain strong for remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Forward energy curves continue to suggest that these wider differentials will persist for an extended period. Global nitrogen cost curve will remain supportive of significant margin opportunities for low - cost North American producers

Tailwinds

  • Global nitrogen market expected to remain strong for remainder of 2023 and into 2024
  • Global nitrogen prices stabilized during the latter part of the second quarter as robust demand for spring application season emerged in North America and smaller importing regions such as Asia (ex. India) and Latin America (ex. Brazil) returned to average purchasing patterns compared to 2022
  • Management believes that the Northern Hemisphere ended the first half of 2023 with low inventories of nitrogen fertilizer, which, along with expected strong demand from Brazil and India, should support a positive demand environment in the second half of the year
  • North American farmer profitability continues to be strong. Nitrogen inventory levels believed to be below average levels
  • Forward energy curves continue to suggest that these wider differentials will persist for an extended period

Headwinds

  • Europe unfavorable producer economics continue to favor nitrogen imports
  • Chinese urea exports are expected to be 2 - 3M metric tons under current measures
  • Russian exports of ammonia remain lower while other nitrogen products are at pre - war levels
  • India continues to be one of world’s largest importers, with frequent urea tenders expected in the second half despite higher domestic production
  • Brazil expected to have strong urea consumption and higher import volumes in the second half, supported by increased crop plantings, robust farmer incomes and favorable weather conditions

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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