NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries' first quarter results were solid, underpinned by rising nitrogen prices and partially offset by lower production and sales volume.

CF Industries reported net sales of $1.05 billion for Q1 2021, compared to $971 million in Q1 2020. Net earnings were $151 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, compared to $68 million, or $0.31 per diluted share in Q1 2020. Adjusted EBITDA was $398 million compared to $318 million for the same quarter last year.

  • Net sales in Q1 2021 were $1.05B compared to $971M in Q1 2020.
  • Average selling prices for Q1 2021 were higher than Q1 2020 across most segments due to decreased supply availability as higher global energy costs drove lower global operating rates.
  • Sales volume of 4.6M tons in Q1 2021 compared to 4.7M in Q1 2020 due to lower supply availability from lower production
  • Company completed redemption of remaining $250 million of Senior Secured Notes due December 2021

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.05B

Previous: $971M+7.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.70

Previous: $0.31+125.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$71M

Previous: -$67M-6.0%
Free Cash Flow

$104M

Previous: $24M+333.3%
Net Income

$175M

Previous: $91M+92.3%
Operating Income

$247M

Previous: $147M+68.0%
Gross Profit

$289M

Previous: $204M+41.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$69M

Previous: $53M+30.2%
Total Assets

$12B

Previous: $12.4B-3.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $7M+14.3%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.05B

Q1 2021+7.9%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $1.05B total across 5 segments · Q1 2021

  • Granular Urea Segment
    $399M
  • UAN Segment
    $232M
  • Ammonia Segment
    $206M
  • Other Segment
    $106M
  • AN Segment
    $105M

Forward guidance

The company expects a highly favorable environment for low-cost producers that appears sustainable into 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Low global coarse grains stocks-to-use ratios and higher energy prices in Europe and Asia have significantly tightened the global nitrogen supply and demand balance
  • Stocks - to - use ratios at multi - year lows has driven the highest commodity crop prices in nearly a decade, supporting strong nitrogen demand to maximize yields globally
  • Strong nitrogen demand expected in North America in 2021; global requirements driven by robust demand from India and Brazil
  • The Company expects 90 - 92 million corn acres planted in the US with higher canola plantings in Canada and industrial use rising due to higher economic activity
  • Widened energy differentials have steepened the global nitrogen cost curve, increasing margin opportunities for North American producers

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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