NYSE$CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

CF Industries experienced solid first half results underpinned by rising nitrogen prices, partially offset by lower production and sales volume.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported net sales of $1.588 billion for the second quarter of 2021, compared to $1.204 billion for the second quarter of 2020. Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $246 million, or $1.14 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2021, compared to $190 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020.

  • Global nitrogen price dynamics have significantly tightened the global nitrogen supply and demand balance.
  • Stocks-to-use ratios at multi-year lows have driven the highest commodity crop prices in nearly a decade, supporting strong nitrogen demand to maximize yields globally.
  • Energy prices in Europe and Asia increased significantly from the lows of 2020 and returned to sizable differentials compared to Henry Hub natural gas prices in North America.
  • India is expected to tender for urea frequently in the second half of 2021, with purchases expected to approach 10 million metric tons for 2021

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.59B

Previous: $1.2B+31.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.14

Previous: $0.89+28.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$181M

Previous: -$119M-52.1%
Free Cash Flow

$136M

Previous: $99M+37.4%
Net Income

$317M

Previous: $218M+45.4%
Operating Income

$450M

Previous: $280M+60.7%
Gross Profit

$503M

Previous: $334M+50.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$85M

Previous: $79M+7.6%
Total Assets

$12B

Previous: $12B+0.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $6M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.59B

Q2 2021+31.9%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

CF Industries · $2.64B total across 5 segments · Q2 2021

  • Granular Urea Segment
    $832M+152.9%
  • UAN Segment
    $666M+116.2%
  • Ammonia Segment
    $665M+82.7%
  • AN Segment
    $241M+104.2%
  • Other Segment
    $232M+172.9%

Forward guidance

The company projects capex for full year 2021 ~$500 million, which reflects maintenance activities deferred from 2020 as well as activity that was previously planned to occur in 2022. 2021 capex includes expenditures for the green ammonia project at the Donaldsonville Complex

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

41 / 72 earnings

Positive

+11.4%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-12.5%

Q2 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+8.6%-5.0%
Q4 2025+4.8%+0.3%+30.3%
Q3 2025-4.3%-1.6%-8.4%
Q1 2025+0.8%+8.7%+14.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-6.4%-8.4%
Q3 2024+1.1%+6.2%+10.2%
Q2 2024+8.4%+10.1%+7.0%
Q1 2024-6.5%-5.6%+1.0%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.9%+8.3%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.7%-4.3%
Q2 2023-0.1%-1.0%-2.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%-2.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-0.3%-3.7%-17.1%
Q3 2022-2.4%-3.2%-3.2%
Q2 2022+2.8%+4.8%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.7%-4.8%
Q4 2021+4.1%+2.5%+29.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+10.9%+5.0%
Q2 2021+3.5%+4.7%-3.5%
Q1 2021+5.1%+10.1%+11.6%
Q4 2020-3.0%+3.6%+6.5%
Q3 2020+1.2%+7.2%+46.4%
Q2 2020+3.1%+7.7%+2.5%
Q1 2020+0.8%+0.5%+19.8%
Q4 2019-6.7%-9.2%-34.4%
Q3 2019-3.2%+1.6%-1.4%
Q2 2019+5.2%+2.0%-3.1%
Q1 2019-2.9%-2.2%-10.1%
Q4 2018-0.9%-2.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018+10.4%+7.0%-8.8%
Q2 2018+11.4%+10.5%+17.0%
Q1 2018-1.0%-2.4%+4.7%
Q4 2017+4.8%+3.5%-1.7%
Q3 2017+1.5%+3.2%-1.0%
Q2 2017+5.1%+9.3%+2.6%
Q1 2017+2.7%+5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-7.7%-6.1%-19.4%
Q3 2016-9.2%-6.4%+14.0%
Q2 2016-12.5%-5.3%+5.9%
Q1 2016-2.8%
Q4 2015+10.4%
Q3 2015-9.9%
Q2 2015+4.1%
Q1 2015+3.4%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014-0.4%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+2.6%
Q3 2013-2.5%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013+4.2%
Q4 2012-4.4%
Q3 2012+3.7%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-8.1%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q3 2011+2.7%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2011+5.1%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010-2.6%
Q1 2009+2.6%
Q1 2010+0.0%
Q4 2007+5.4%
Q4 2009+5.4%
Q3 2008+2.6%
Q3 2009+2.6%
Q2 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008+1.3%
Q2 2008+1.3%

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