NYSE$CF
CF Industries Holdings Inc · Q3 2023 earnings
Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
CF Industries experienced solid results underpinned by strong North American demand and favorable energy spreads.
CF Industries reported net sales of $1.273 billion and a net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $164 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $445 million. The company returned approximately $900 million to shareholders over the last twelve months and is progressing with its clean energy initiatives and the acquisition of the Waggaman ammonia production complex.
- Low nitrogen channel inventories drive strong North American demand.
- Returned ~$900 million to shareholders over LTM.
- Waggaman acquisition expected to close December 1, 2023.
- Advanced our clean energy initiatives.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
CF Industries · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.27B
Revenue by segment
CF Industries · $3.39B total across 5 segments · Q2 2022
- Ammonia Segment$1.12B+67.7%32.9%
- UAN Segment$976M+46.5%28.8%
- Granular Urea Segment$833M+0.1%24.6%
- AN Segment$253M+5.0%7.5%
- Other Segment$212M-8.6%6.3%
Forward guidance
Global nitrogen market expected to remain favorable for remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Energy differentials between North America and marginal producers in Europe and Asia remain well - above historical levels
Tailwinds
- Robust global demand along with lower production due to global turnaround activity and continued challenging natural gas fundamentals in key regions, such as Europe and Trinidad, tightened the global nitrogen - supply demand balance, supporting an increase in global nitrogen prices late in the third quarter
- North American channel inventories remain below average due to lower import levels and higher export volumes year - to - date
- Europe unfavorable producer economics driven by higher forecast natural gas prices in the region continue to favor nitrogen imports
- India urea demand is expected to remain stable, underpinned by robust agricultural production
- Brazil demand for urea is expected to be strong through its growing season supported by high planted corn acres and healthy farm incomes
Headwinds
- Chinese urea exports are expected to be lower as the Chinese government reinstated measures to limit exports
- Russian exports of ammonia remain lower while other nitrogen products are at pre - war levels
- Estimated 20 - 30% of European ammonia capacity curtailed as production costs driven by energy costs remain higher than global ammonia spot prices
- Global nitrogen cost curve will remain supportive of significant margin opportunities for low - cost North American producers
- North American channel inventories remain below average due to lower import levels and higher export volumes year - to - date
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023
+0.7%
Avg return
Earnings day
+1.5%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.4%
Avg return
30 days after
57%
41 / 72 earnings
Positive
+11.4%
Q2 2018
Best reaction
-12.5%
Q2 2016
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -0.0% | +8.6% | -5.0% | |
| Q4 2025 | +4.8% | +0.3% | +30.3% | |
| Q3 2025 | -4.3% | -1.6% | -8.4% | |
| Q1 2025 | +0.8% | +8.7% | +14.2% | |
| Q4 2024 | -4.2% | -6.4% | -8.4% | |
| Q3 2024 | +1.1% | +6.2% | +10.2% | |
| Q2 2024 | +8.4% | +10.1% | +7.0% | |
| Q1 2024 | -6.5% | -5.6% | +1.0% | |
| Q4 2023 | -0.3% | +0.9% | +8.3% | |
| Q3 2023 | +0.7% | -0.7% | -4.3% | |
| Q2 2023 | -0.1% | -1.0% | -2.5% | |
| Q1 2023 | +3.5% | -2.7% | -14.1% | |
| Q4 2022 | -0.3% | -3.7% | -17.1% | |
| Q3 2022 | -2.4% | -3.2% | -3.2% | |
| Q2 2022 | +2.8% | +4.8% | +8.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | -0.4% | -9.7% | -4.8% | |
| Q4 2021 | +4.1% | +2.5% | +29.0% | |
| Q3 2021 | +3.7% | +10.9% | +5.0% | |
| Q2 2021 | +3.5% | +4.7% | -3.5% | |
| Q1 2021 | +5.1% | +10.1% | +11.6% | |
| Q4 2020 | -3.0% | +3.6% | +6.5% | |
| Q3 2020 | +1.2% | +7.2% | +46.4% | |
| Q2 2020 | +3.1% | +7.7% | +2.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | +0.8% | +0.5% | +19.8% | |
| Q4 2019 | -6.7% | -9.2% | -34.4% | |
| Q3 2019 | -3.2% | +1.6% | -1.4% | |
| Q2 2019 | +5.2% | +2.0% | -3.1% | |
| Q1 2019 | -2.9% | -2.2% | -10.1% | |
| Q4 2018 | -0.9% | -2.7% | +0.3% | |
| Q3 2018 | +10.4% | +7.0% | -8.8% | |
| Q2 2018 | +11.4% | +10.5% | +17.0% | |
| Q1 2018 | -1.0% | -2.4% | +4.7% | |
| Q4 2017 | +4.8% | +3.5% | -1.7% | |
| Q3 2017 | +1.5% | +3.2% | -1.0% | |
| Q2 2017 | +5.1% | +9.3% | +2.6% | |
| Q1 2017 | +2.7% | +5.3% | +0.1% | |
| Q4 2016 | -7.7% | -6.1% | -19.4% | |
| Q3 2016 | -9.2% | -6.4% | +14.0% | |
| Q2 2016 | -12.5% | -5.3% | +5.9% | |
| Q1 2016 | -2.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +10.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -9.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +4.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +3.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -1.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | -0.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -2.3% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | -0.9% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +4.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -4.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +3.7% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +2.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -8.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | +4.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +2.7% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +5.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | +5.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | +2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | -2.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2009 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +0.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2007 | +5.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +5.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2008 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +1.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +1.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2008 | +1.3% | — | — |
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